The obvious most glaring issue the Dolphins had against the Patriots was that they could not stop Matt Cassel and the Patriots passing game. The Patriots used a smart game plan in that they tried to spread out the Dolphins, seeing our preexisting limitations in personnel in the secondary, and out-skill us.
We responded by doing what we've done all year, in the early part of the game. In our nickel and dime packages, we rushed four guys for the most part, and mixed up some man and zone in coverage. Since we have been a bit more successful with man than zone of late, we played mostly man. Though we didn't stop them ever, we did force two turnovers early, exploiting the risk that Bill Belichick took by spreading us out. Jason Allen made a nice play on Randy Moss, and Renaldo Hill got the pick to set up a score. Later, Matt Roth and Channing Crowder forced another fumble, which led to a score, exemplifying the vicious hitting that the Dolphins used all day.
It hasn't gotten much press, because people look and see 400 yards of passing and a loss at the end of the day, but the Dolphins defense did have some success early. Yes, the Patriots moved the ball, but the Dolphins defense came out ready to hit and forced two turnovers. Had the offense been able to get things going on the ground and hold the ball a bit, we might have been looking at a different game. We could've afforded to play much more aggressively with a lead and the defense spending time off the field, but it wasn't the case (posts on the offense to follow), and the Patriots were able to employ their preferred strategy.
Complicating matters in the first half was the fact that the Dolphins were getting killed up front. People always underestimate the importance of line play in the passing game, but the key for the Patriots was that they were able to handle the Dolphins' front four out of the empty. On top of that, the defensive line had been beat on some draw plays, too. It looked like they were going at the undisciplined Merling, who stood out for his lack of lane accountability.
So, at halftime Tony Sparano and his staff were faced with tough decisions, ones which have been scrutinized by the mainstream media (despite said media's lack of football knowledge and simplistic outlook: "Lots of passing yards? Blame the coaches for choosing the wrong coverages!"). The fact is that the Dolphins were outmanned by the Patriots receivers, failing to generate a pass rush, and desperately in need of a defensive spark to take the lead; Sparano knew that trading touchdowns in a shootout with the Patriots was not wise.
So, the Dolphins decided to come out attacking in the second half. It seemed like an intelligent strategy: if the Patriots were scoring every time down anyway, you might as well take a shot at forcing them into some mistakes and giving you an easy one. Get ahead, and then you can slow the game down. Despite hindsight, I think Sparano made the best decision at the time to give the Dolphins a chance to win the game.
The problem was that the Dolphins continued to be outplayed. At some point, the coaches can't do anything anymore, and the players decide the game. The Patriots have a gifted receiving group, Moss providing a matchup problem for any team defending him in man, and Welker an expert at picking apart zones. They are better players than the Dolphins can consistently cover, as was certainly true on Sunday, so the Dolphins only hope came down to getting to Cassel. Simply put, they didn't. Sometimes it was him making good throws, sometimes it was good scheme, but mostly it was protection. With Cassel protected and those receivers, there isn't a team in the league that would've fared any better than the Dolphins.
If you want to nitpick, you could say that the Dolphins erred in that they really only played man in the second half. Though it plays to their personnel strengths, Sparano and company probably would have been more wise to mix things up and disguise some zone amidst their blitz schemes. Belichick saw man and called a lot of crossing routes, exploiting the Dolphins' coverage, and salivated every time he sent Moss on the nine route. If you want to attack Sparano, this was the mistake that he made.
It's far too simplistic to say that Jason Allen on Randy Moss was a mismatch that should've been avoided. In a shootout, sitting back was not working, and Sparano took the calculated risk to go after Matt Cassel. Yes, Jason Allen lost the one on one battle, but the Dolphins were counting on the pass rush to pick up for that obvious mismatch, and the reason why the Dolphins gave up so many yards in the air is because they were outplayed.
So there you have it. The Dolphins D forced a couple of turnovers early, but without the offense being able to control the ball, they were staring at a shootout. Sparano wisely tried to manufacture a pass rush to reclaim the reins on the game, but the Patriots were simply too good Sunday. They faced only eight third downs in the entire game and punted just once. Randy Moss was Randy Moss, and though they still had a chance to win, the Dolphins simply never stopped the Patriots.
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Notes:
-Crowder continues to struggle in pass defense. On the positive side, he absolutely cleaned out Wes Welker with a fine hit, but mostly he was picked on. If the Dolphins continue to refuse to take him off the field ever, he will continue to be a liability against any spread offense. Belichick lined up Kevin Faulk on the outside a few times, forcing Crowder out with him in a mismatch and Jason Allen into the slot, where he is inexperienced, and Crowder ran to the corner of the end zone on Cassel's predictable draw for a touchdown. He might be part of the long term future of the Dolphins, but I don't think he is the guy you want on the field on third and long unless you are giving him the sole responsibility of spying the QB.
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