Monday, November 26, 2007
Weather Delay
If we thought the conditions were bad last week, we are in for a whole new terror in Pittsburgh. This field was already in terrible shape, with 5 football games here in the last 4 days, but now it looks like a mud pit. Don't expect to see Beck throw the ball at all. We could see a lot of Ricky, and the hat-on-hat, blocking and tackling football we are going to see bodes well for the type of football the Steelers like to play. Parcells made a great point about in talking about playing the game on the opponent's side of the field to capitalize on mistakes and avoid catastrophe. Exchanges could be a problem for Beck, especially with another rookie at center and Williams potentially playing a lot of running back. The Dolphins better be ready to hit tonight and get a lead (Ginn?!?) or it's going to be a long night.
A few notes:
Just a few little things I wanted to touch on before the Dolphins-Steelers game tonight...
1. To clarify my earlier post about the need for long-term consultants for NFL owners, that post is not meant to be a response to the 0-10 record of the Dolphins. In fact, I believe that the Dolphins made a great decision in forming the Mueller/Cameron partnership, and I believe that the 0-10 record has been mostly because of mistakes by previous regimes and bad breaks. I fully support Huizenga's decision to rely on Mueller and Cameron, and I think they are the exact type of people with the long-term foresight that the Dolphins need.
2. I have been reading in a lot of places that people thought the Dolphins should have kicked on 4th and Goal from the 1 last week against the Eagles. I completely disagree. That was the Dolphins best chance to score a touchdown (judging by their 0 offensive points on the day), and Cameron made the right call, just with a bad result. Regardless, the Dolphins should have scored on 2nd and Goal, when Halterman dropped what would've been Beck's first career touchdown pass.
3. Especially in light of the footballoutsiders article which I posted earlier today, I think the Dolphins could have won some more games this year, specifically the past three. It seems that after the Green injury, Cameron has increasingly lacked confidence in his quarterbacks. I understand his efforts to protect Beck in his first start, but Lemon really never had a chance to do much of anything against the Giants or Bills. Cameron has got to take some risks and open up if the Dolphins want to win games. Us Miami fans are tired of game manager quarterbacks, and I will take some interceptions if they come with touchdowns and points. Maybe Beck's 2nd start combined with the presence of Ricky Williams in the backfield and Monday night will give Cam some confidence, but I really think it's on him right now. The risk is worth the reward if our current yield is zero wins in ten games while playing more conservatively...
1. To clarify my earlier post about the need for long-term consultants for NFL owners, that post is not meant to be a response to the 0-10 record of the Dolphins. In fact, I believe that the Dolphins made a great decision in forming the Mueller/Cameron partnership, and I believe that the 0-10 record has been mostly because of mistakes by previous regimes and bad breaks. I fully support Huizenga's decision to rely on Mueller and Cameron, and I think they are the exact type of people with the long-term foresight that the Dolphins need.
2. I have been reading in a lot of places that people thought the Dolphins should have kicked on 4th and Goal from the 1 last week against the Eagles. I completely disagree. That was the Dolphins best chance to score a touchdown (judging by their 0 offensive points on the day), and Cameron made the right call, just with a bad result. Regardless, the Dolphins should have scored on 2nd and Goal, when Halterman dropped what would've been Beck's first career touchdown pass.
3. Especially in light of the footballoutsiders article which I posted earlier today, I think the Dolphins could have won some more games this year, specifically the past three. It seems that after the Green injury, Cameron has increasingly lacked confidence in his quarterbacks. I understand his efforts to protect Beck in his first start, but Lemon really never had a chance to do much of anything against the Giants or Bills. Cameron has got to take some risks and open up if the Dolphins want to win games. Us Miami fans are tired of game manager quarterbacks, and I will take some interceptions if they come with touchdowns and points. Maybe Beck's 2nd start combined with the presence of Ricky Williams in the backfield and Monday night will give Cam some confidence, but I really think it's on him right now. The risk is worth the reward if our current yield is zero wins in ten games while playing more conservatively...
Interesting Article
Here is a link to an interesting article on ESPN posted by footballoutsiders.com (who else) about why they believe the Dolphins will win at least a game this year...
Click Here
Click Here
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Parity in the NFL
In an interesting season marred by the unfortunate pursuits of perfection by the Patriots and perfect futility by the Dolphins, the NFL fan has to wonder what has happened to the NFL's supposed parity. This is the league with the Viagra-hard salary cap, ultimate revenue-sharing, and a huge advantage in the NFL draft for the weakest teams. Any team can win on any given Sunday, and teams seem to go from rags to riches overnight.
But suddenly it seems like the rich keep getting richer and the poor poorer. The consensus (although I question it) is that no team can beat the Pats, a team in the midst of what might be a dynasty. Baseball, with stories like the Mets and Rockies of this year, has become the anything can happen league, and football is starting to look like a caste system with little mobility. As Mr. Belding would say, What is going on here?
The guys fro ProFootballTalk.com would tell you that getting a high draft pick is no longer a reward, but rather a fiscal responsibility. Teams with top 5 picks have to commit a great deal of guaranteed money to unproven commodities, and a lot of the time this causes years of trouble in a league where the salary cap is so important. They believe that the system for determining the draft order actually punishes the worst teams in the league as opposed to helping them, and that the NFL should look into revamping the system.
While I think the PFT guys make a good point, there is something more going on here. Professional sports coaches are put on shorter and shorter leashes every year. Teams want to win, and they want to win quick. Even the obviously rebuilding Miami Dolphins were afraid to use that dreaded r-word for weeks this year because in the NFL, the here and now is all that matters. What have you done for me lately is a phrase that comes to mind. No coach's job is secure, and for that reason building a franchise is not enough. A coach/GM needs to build a franchise quickly.
So what ends up happening? The have-nots try to make like the post-Katrina Saints but fail, and year after year dig their hole deeper and deeper. Everybody spends their money looking for the quick fix and mortgage their future by creating salary cap problems for years and years. Take, for example, your very own post-Shula Miami Dolphins. The Ricky Williams trade, which ended up costing 2 first round picks, is a prime example of the type of move that bad teams make to try to get better. The AJ Feely trade is another great example. While it is fun to blame Spielman (and he is well deserving of it), he was in a system where he had to get better soon or he would be gone. A 2nd round pick could not help him as immediately as a potential starting quarterback. The bad teams have coaches and GMs that make short term decisions in hopes of saving their jobs, but in reality, the NFL is not a short term league.
The other side of the coin is the good teams. I get heartburn thinking about it, but the antithesis of the Miami Dolphins right now is the Patriots. The Patriots have a solid foundation of players, are great up front on both sides of the ball, have a franchise quarterback, and have a shut down corner. They have no short term needs. So, what does this allow them to do? They consistently stockpile draft picks, taking advantage of the shortsighted poor teams (they will probably end up with the #2 pick this year thanks to the 49ers). Then, with these abundant draft picks, they are free to draft players who may not contribute immediately, but will eventually turn into starters for years down the road. They can plan for the future with cheap young players, a necessity in the NFL, and a luxury that the poor teams do not have (or at least don't think they have).
While that explains what the problem is in the NFL and what has caused this blatant lack of parity, it does not explain what I believe can be done to fix it. It may seem implicit in my writing that I believe that the coaches and GMs of the current have-nots should simply alter their strategy and think in the long term, but to the contrary I don't believe this is realistic. Not only are most coaches and GMs way too concerned with their own jobs and the pressures of winning now for this simple answer to work, which they are, but they are being hired to win games, sell tickets, and fill the seats. It is not their job to lose games so that some other regime can come in and take credit for what they built, and any owner who puts that much altruistic faith in his coach/GM is kidding himself and an idiot (see Dolan of the NBA).
The true answer is that the onus is on the ownership of the poor-performing NFL teams (and all teams) to hire long-term advisers and consultants to help guide and oversee the franchise. I'm not talking somebody experienced in business operations or a passing executive who will be gone in a few years. The Wayne Huizengas of the NFL need to have trustworthy sources with experience in NFL personnel operations on staff for the long term. No more Nick Sabans coming in and doing whatever they please. Somebody has to control what coaches and GMs are doing today to affect the franchise for years down the road. In most cases, the only person they have to answer to is the owner, but clearly Huizenga and the other owners need help in checking the power of these coaches and GMs.
The future of the National Football League is potentially in jeopardy. Parity has been of paramount importance for the success of the league, and it needs to stay that way. For the love of the game, and for the love of those of us who can't stand to see such poor play from such beloved teams, I beg the owners to create infrastructures that can control shortsighted coaches and GMs, and I beg that they step in when need be.
But suddenly it seems like the rich keep getting richer and the poor poorer. The consensus (although I question it) is that no team can beat the Pats, a team in the midst of what might be a dynasty. Baseball, with stories like the Mets and Rockies of this year, has become the anything can happen league, and football is starting to look like a caste system with little mobility. As Mr. Belding would say, What is going on here?
The guys fro ProFootballTalk.com would tell you that getting a high draft pick is no longer a reward, but rather a fiscal responsibility. Teams with top 5 picks have to commit a great deal of guaranteed money to unproven commodities, and a lot of the time this causes years of trouble in a league where the salary cap is so important. They believe that the system for determining the draft order actually punishes the worst teams in the league as opposed to helping them, and that the NFL should look into revamping the system.
While I think the PFT guys make a good point, there is something more going on here. Professional sports coaches are put on shorter and shorter leashes every year. Teams want to win, and they want to win quick. Even the obviously rebuilding Miami Dolphins were afraid to use that dreaded r-word for weeks this year because in the NFL, the here and now is all that matters. What have you done for me lately is a phrase that comes to mind. No coach's job is secure, and for that reason building a franchise is not enough. A coach/GM needs to build a franchise quickly.
So what ends up happening? The have-nots try to make like the post-Katrina Saints but fail, and year after year dig their hole deeper and deeper. Everybody spends their money looking for the quick fix and mortgage their future by creating salary cap problems for years and years. Take, for example, your very own post-Shula Miami Dolphins. The Ricky Williams trade, which ended up costing 2 first round picks, is a prime example of the type of move that bad teams make to try to get better. The AJ Feely trade is another great example. While it is fun to blame Spielman (and he is well deserving of it), he was in a system where he had to get better soon or he would be gone. A 2nd round pick could not help him as immediately as a potential starting quarterback. The bad teams have coaches and GMs that make short term decisions in hopes of saving their jobs, but in reality, the NFL is not a short term league.
The other side of the coin is the good teams. I get heartburn thinking about it, but the antithesis of the Miami Dolphins right now is the Patriots. The Patriots have a solid foundation of players, are great up front on both sides of the ball, have a franchise quarterback, and have a shut down corner. They have no short term needs. So, what does this allow them to do? They consistently stockpile draft picks, taking advantage of the shortsighted poor teams (they will probably end up with the #2 pick this year thanks to the 49ers). Then, with these abundant draft picks, they are free to draft players who may not contribute immediately, but will eventually turn into starters for years down the road. They can plan for the future with cheap young players, a necessity in the NFL, and a luxury that the poor teams do not have (or at least don't think they have).
While that explains what the problem is in the NFL and what has caused this blatant lack of parity, it does not explain what I believe can be done to fix it. It may seem implicit in my writing that I believe that the coaches and GMs of the current have-nots should simply alter their strategy and think in the long term, but to the contrary I don't believe this is realistic. Not only are most coaches and GMs way too concerned with their own jobs and the pressures of winning now for this simple answer to work, which they are, but they are being hired to win games, sell tickets, and fill the seats. It is not their job to lose games so that some other regime can come in and take credit for what they built, and any owner who puts that much altruistic faith in his coach/GM is kidding himself and an idiot (see Dolan of the NBA).
The true answer is that the onus is on the ownership of the poor-performing NFL teams (and all teams) to hire long-term advisers and consultants to help guide and oversee the franchise. I'm not talking somebody experienced in business operations or a passing executive who will be gone in a few years. The Wayne Huizengas of the NFL need to have trustworthy sources with experience in NFL personnel operations on staff for the long term. No more Nick Sabans coming in and doing whatever they please. Somebody has to control what coaches and GMs are doing today to affect the franchise for years down the road. In most cases, the only person they have to answer to is the owner, but clearly Huizenga and the other owners need help in checking the power of these coaches and GMs.
The future of the National Football League is potentially in jeopardy. Parity has been of paramount importance for the success of the league, and it needs to stay that way. For the love of the game, and for the love of those of us who can't stand to see such poor play from such beloved teams, I beg the owners to create infrastructures that can control shortsighted coaches and GMs, and I beg that they step in when need be.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Dolphins @ Eagles
I watched John Beck's first start from the comfort of my home. Here's what I saw:
-41 degrees, 15mph wind, and light rain in Philadelphia against Jim Johnson's defense...not ideal conditions for the first start of Beck's NFL career, but I think the idea that Cameron has is to get him some tough experience before his first win again the Jets in a couple of weeks.
-I'm not sure about Rod Wright. He has played a lot, but has been relatively invisible all year, part of the terrible run defense. On an early play he looked as slow as Keith Traylor while chasing McNabb.
-Jason Allen interception - I love it. Way too much time for McNabb to throw though.
-Nice drive by Beck early. He showed great feet when he eluded the rush and ran for a first down, and he had some nice strength throwing down the field. I could get used to hearing "Beck to Ginn."
-3rd and 11 on the Eagles 29 with 20 seconds left in the 1st quarter: another tactical error by Cameron. Run the ball, switch sides, and let Feely kick into the wind. Instead, we passed incomplete and had the field goal attempt knocked down by the wind.
-Beck is struggling with short passes, which is normal for a young quarterback. On the short passes he is throwing the ball too hard and has been inaccurate. It will probably take some time, but before too long he should develop that touch that veteran quarterbacks instinctively know when to use.
-I really liked a lot of what I saw from Beck, especially early, but it is easy to see that this is his first start. He needs to get used to being pressured by NFL defensive lines, and he needs to catch up to the speed of the game, but I think we might have a winner here.
-Lehan's corner blitz worked on two separate occasions. I like that better than him in coverage.
-Field's terrible punt out of the end zone cost Miami 3 points. These are 3 points in addition to the ones Cameron may have given up by not switching sides before Feely's field goal. All these points have really added up for us this year.
-I noted in the 2nd quarter that the Dolphins should try max protect to get some time to throw down the field, which Beck was doing very well.
-The linebackers did not play well today. We really missed Zach's knack for always being in the right hole and not missing tackles. A lot of our run defense issues today came down to linebackers being in the wrong place, allowing running backs to find huge alleys.
-I understand the theory that with a young quarterback you want to minimize the pass rush by running the ball often. However, running for 1 yard on every 1st down play doesn't do Beck any favors. An effective running game helps the young QB, but forcing obvious passing situations does the opposite.
-The only note I had from the entire second half of the game is that the run defense fell apart, but Jason Allen came to play.
-41 degrees, 15mph wind, and light rain in Philadelphia against Jim Johnson's defense...not ideal conditions for the first start of Beck's NFL career, but I think the idea that Cameron has is to get him some tough experience before his first win again the Jets in a couple of weeks.
-I'm not sure about Rod Wright. He has played a lot, but has been relatively invisible all year, part of the terrible run defense. On an early play he looked as slow as Keith Traylor while chasing McNabb.
-Jason Allen interception - I love it. Way too much time for McNabb to throw though.
-Nice drive by Beck early. He showed great feet when he eluded the rush and ran for a first down, and he had some nice strength throwing down the field. I could get used to hearing "Beck to Ginn."
-3rd and 11 on the Eagles 29 with 20 seconds left in the 1st quarter: another tactical error by Cameron. Run the ball, switch sides, and let Feely kick into the wind. Instead, we passed incomplete and had the field goal attempt knocked down by the wind.
-Beck is struggling with short passes, which is normal for a young quarterback. On the short passes he is throwing the ball too hard and has been inaccurate. It will probably take some time, but before too long he should develop that touch that veteran quarterbacks instinctively know when to use.
-I really liked a lot of what I saw from Beck, especially early, but it is easy to see that this is his first start. He needs to get used to being pressured by NFL defensive lines, and he needs to catch up to the speed of the game, but I think we might have a winner here.
-Lehan's corner blitz worked on two separate occasions. I like that better than him in coverage.
-Field's terrible punt out of the end zone cost Miami 3 points. These are 3 points in addition to the ones Cameron may have given up by not switching sides before Feely's field goal. All these points have really added up for us this year.
-I noted in the 2nd quarter that the Dolphins should try max protect to get some time to throw down the field, which Beck was doing very well.
-The linebackers did not play well today. We really missed Zach's knack for always being in the right hole and not missing tackles. A lot of our run defense issues today came down to linebackers being in the wrong place, allowing running backs to find huge alleys.
-I understand the theory that with a young quarterback you want to minimize the pass rush by running the ball often. However, running for 1 yard on every 1st down play doesn't do Beck any favors. An effective running game helps the young QB, but forcing obvious passing situations does the opposite.
-The only note I had from the entire second half of the game is that the run defense fell apart, but Jason Allen came to play.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Dolphins-Bills
I watched the Dolphins host the Bills from the comfort of a sports bar with way-too-small TVs and no audio, so my commentary might be a bit limited this week.
-One thing which has bothered me all year has been the Dolphins need for these short kickoffs. They are almost never successful, and they basically guarantee that the opponent will start past the 35. I don't understand the logic behind them, I don't like that Cameron/Armstrong keeps ordering them, and although I love Feely's kicking ability, I miss Mare's thunderous leg. Wouldn't it make sense to spend a roster spot on a kickoff specialist who could put it out of the end zone on a consistent basis?
-The Dolphins threw on a 3rd and 1 play early. At first, I got mad because it didn't work and it's always easy to blame play calling when something doesn't work. However, when I thought about it, I really liked the call. With all the defenders up in run support, a completion and missed tackle probably means a touchdown. Also, the Dolphins were in 4 down territory, so why not treat 3rd and 1 like 2nd and 1 when the defense can't afford to. It was actually relatively brilliant, especially had it worked. Likewise, going for it on 4th down was the right call (especially in light of throwing on 3rd down), but once again the Dolphins had nothing to blame but poor execution.
-If Cameron insists on starting Lemon because he gives us "the best chance at winning" and if he really wants to get a look at him as a quarterback in the midst of a lost season, he needs to let him throw the ball early in the game before the Dolphins fall behind. Every game, it seems like we run ourselves into the ground early, and then we score our points passing when it's already too late. Lemon seems to have some ability, but because of the conservative play calling, we don't really know. It has become very apparent that Cameron's reasoning for not making a switch at quarterback has a lot more to do with his plans for Beck and a lot less with winning.
-Pretty terrible work when you have a 2nd and 1 and a 2nd and 2 and you end up turning it over on downs and punting.
-The Dolphins D appears to have turned the corner and fixed whatever was wrong. The change in philosophy in the secondary a few weeks ago seems to really be working. Also, they are finishing plays and tackling as a team. However, they still can’t stop anybody when they need to. Every time the Dolphins do anything good on offense, they seem to fall apart immediately on defense.
-On the Bills 2 point conversion, Taylor slipped a block to the inside, but in doing so he made the block for Buffalo and created a hole by not taking his man on. That's not the type of responsibility football you'd like to see from your best player.
-Booker was absolutely horrible today. One play after Ginn had another work of beauty called back (by the way, did anybody see the hold or hear Camarillo's postgame commentary on the play...unbelievable), Booker dropped a completion that would've gone for 30+ yards to continue his horrible day. Sure, the Dolphins got cheated maybe out of a victory on the Ginn return, but it's not like they didn't have their chances.
-Why do I have to watch the most important plays of the game on these impossible camera angles?
-Even when we control the entire game, we find a way to lose. The Bills making the play when it counts and the Dolphins getting called back show the difference in what a good special teams will do. Never have I missed Mike Westhoff more.
-How fitting that the game ends on a ball Booker could have caught. The 3rd failed slant to him of the day.
-One thing which has bothered me all year has been the Dolphins need for these short kickoffs. They are almost never successful, and they basically guarantee that the opponent will start past the 35. I don't understand the logic behind them, I don't like that Cameron/Armstrong keeps ordering them, and although I love Feely's kicking ability, I miss Mare's thunderous leg. Wouldn't it make sense to spend a roster spot on a kickoff specialist who could put it out of the end zone on a consistent basis?
-The Dolphins threw on a 3rd and 1 play early. At first, I got mad because it didn't work and it's always easy to blame play calling when something doesn't work. However, when I thought about it, I really liked the call. With all the defenders up in run support, a completion and missed tackle probably means a touchdown. Also, the Dolphins were in 4 down territory, so why not treat 3rd and 1 like 2nd and 1 when the defense can't afford to. It was actually relatively brilliant, especially had it worked. Likewise, going for it on 4th down was the right call (especially in light of throwing on 3rd down), but once again the Dolphins had nothing to blame but poor execution.
-If Cameron insists on starting Lemon because he gives us "the best chance at winning" and if he really wants to get a look at him as a quarterback in the midst of a lost season, he needs to let him throw the ball early in the game before the Dolphins fall behind. Every game, it seems like we run ourselves into the ground early, and then we score our points passing when it's already too late. Lemon seems to have some ability, but because of the conservative play calling, we don't really know. It has become very apparent that Cameron's reasoning for not making a switch at quarterback has a lot more to do with his plans for Beck and a lot less with winning.
-Pretty terrible work when you have a 2nd and 1 and a 2nd and 2 and you end up turning it over on downs and punting.
-The Dolphins D appears to have turned the corner and fixed whatever was wrong. The change in philosophy in the secondary a few weeks ago seems to really be working. Also, they are finishing plays and tackling as a team. However, they still can’t stop anybody when they need to. Every time the Dolphins do anything good on offense, they seem to fall apart immediately on defense.
-On the Bills 2 point conversion, Taylor slipped a block to the inside, but in doing so he made the block for Buffalo and created a hole by not taking his man on. That's not the type of responsibility football you'd like to see from your best player.
-Booker was absolutely horrible today. One play after Ginn had another work of beauty called back (by the way, did anybody see the hold or hear Camarillo's postgame commentary on the play...unbelievable), Booker dropped a completion that would've gone for 30+ yards to continue his horrible day. Sure, the Dolphins got cheated maybe out of a victory on the Ginn return, but it's not like they didn't have their chances.
-Why do I have to watch the most important plays of the game on these impossible camera angles?
-Even when we control the entire game, we find a way to lose. The Bills making the play when it counts and the Dolphins getting called back show the difference in what a good special teams will do. Never have I missed Mike Westhoff more.
-How fitting that the game ends on a ball Booker could have caught. The 3rd failed slant to him of the day.
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