Monday, November 26, 2007
Weather Delay
If we thought the conditions were bad last week, we are in for a whole new terror in Pittsburgh. This field was already in terrible shape, with 5 football games here in the last 4 days, but now it looks like a mud pit. Don't expect to see Beck throw the ball at all. We could see a lot of Ricky, and the hat-on-hat, blocking and tackling football we are going to see bodes well for the type of football the Steelers like to play. Parcells made a great point about in talking about playing the game on the opponent's side of the field to capitalize on mistakes and avoid catastrophe. Exchanges could be a problem for Beck, especially with another rookie at center and Williams potentially playing a lot of running back. The Dolphins better be ready to hit tonight and get a lead (Ginn?!?) or it's going to be a long night.
A few notes:
Just a few little things I wanted to touch on before the Dolphins-Steelers game tonight...
1. To clarify my earlier post about the need for long-term consultants for NFL owners, that post is not meant to be a response to the 0-10 record of the Dolphins. In fact, I believe that the Dolphins made a great decision in forming the Mueller/Cameron partnership, and I believe that the 0-10 record has been mostly because of mistakes by previous regimes and bad breaks. I fully support Huizenga's decision to rely on Mueller and Cameron, and I think they are the exact type of people with the long-term foresight that the Dolphins need.
2. I have been reading in a lot of places that people thought the Dolphins should have kicked on 4th and Goal from the 1 last week against the Eagles. I completely disagree. That was the Dolphins best chance to score a touchdown (judging by their 0 offensive points on the day), and Cameron made the right call, just with a bad result. Regardless, the Dolphins should have scored on 2nd and Goal, when Halterman dropped what would've been Beck's first career touchdown pass.
3. Especially in light of the footballoutsiders article which I posted earlier today, I think the Dolphins could have won some more games this year, specifically the past three. It seems that after the Green injury, Cameron has increasingly lacked confidence in his quarterbacks. I understand his efforts to protect Beck in his first start, but Lemon really never had a chance to do much of anything against the Giants or Bills. Cameron has got to take some risks and open up if the Dolphins want to win games. Us Miami fans are tired of game manager quarterbacks, and I will take some interceptions if they come with touchdowns and points. Maybe Beck's 2nd start combined with the presence of Ricky Williams in the backfield and Monday night will give Cam some confidence, but I really think it's on him right now. The risk is worth the reward if our current yield is zero wins in ten games while playing more conservatively...
1. To clarify my earlier post about the need for long-term consultants for NFL owners, that post is not meant to be a response to the 0-10 record of the Dolphins. In fact, I believe that the Dolphins made a great decision in forming the Mueller/Cameron partnership, and I believe that the 0-10 record has been mostly because of mistakes by previous regimes and bad breaks. I fully support Huizenga's decision to rely on Mueller and Cameron, and I think they are the exact type of people with the long-term foresight that the Dolphins need.
2. I have been reading in a lot of places that people thought the Dolphins should have kicked on 4th and Goal from the 1 last week against the Eagles. I completely disagree. That was the Dolphins best chance to score a touchdown (judging by their 0 offensive points on the day), and Cameron made the right call, just with a bad result. Regardless, the Dolphins should have scored on 2nd and Goal, when Halterman dropped what would've been Beck's first career touchdown pass.
3. Especially in light of the footballoutsiders article which I posted earlier today, I think the Dolphins could have won some more games this year, specifically the past three. It seems that after the Green injury, Cameron has increasingly lacked confidence in his quarterbacks. I understand his efforts to protect Beck in his first start, but Lemon really never had a chance to do much of anything against the Giants or Bills. Cameron has got to take some risks and open up if the Dolphins want to win games. Us Miami fans are tired of game manager quarterbacks, and I will take some interceptions if they come with touchdowns and points. Maybe Beck's 2nd start combined with the presence of Ricky Williams in the backfield and Monday night will give Cam some confidence, but I really think it's on him right now. The risk is worth the reward if our current yield is zero wins in ten games while playing more conservatively...
Interesting Article
Here is a link to an interesting article on ESPN posted by footballoutsiders.com (who else) about why they believe the Dolphins will win at least a game this year...
Click Here
Click Here
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Parity in the NFL
In an interesting season marred by the unfortunate pursuits of perfection by the Patriots and perfect futility by the Dolphins, the NFL fan has to wonder what has happened to the NFL's supposed parity. This is the league with the Viagra-hard salary cap, ultimate revenue-sharing, and a huge advantage in the NFL draft for the weakest teams. Any team can win on any given Sunday, and teams seem to go from rags to riches overnight.
But suddenly it seems like the rich keep getting richer and the poor poorer. The consensus (although I question it) is that no team can beat the Pats, a team in the midst of what might be a dynasty. Baseball, with stories like the Mets and Rockies of this year, has become the anything can happen league, and football is starting to look like a caste system with little mobility. As Mr. Belding would say, What is going on here?
The guys fro ProFootballTalk.com would tell you that getting a high draft pick is no longer a reward, but rather a fiscal responsibility. Teams with top 5 picks have to commit a great deal of guaranteed money to unproven commodities, and a lot of the time this causes years of trouble in a league where the salary cap is so important. They believe that the system for determining the draft order actually punishes the worst teams in the league as opposed to helping them, and that the NFL should look into revamping the system.
While I think the PFT guys make a good point, there is something more going on here. Professional sports coaches are put on shorter and shorter leashes every year. Teams want to win, and they want to win quick. Even the obviously rebuilding Miami Dolphins were afraid to use that dreaded r-word for weeks this year because in the NFL, the here and now is all that matters. What have you done for me lately is a phrase that comes to mind. No coach's job is secure, and for that reason building a franchise is not enough. A coach/GM needs to build a franchise quickly.
So what ends up happening? The have-nots try to make like the post-Katrina Saints but fail, and year after year dig their hole deeper and deeper. Everybody spends their money looking for the quick fix and mortgage their future by creating salary cap problems for years and years. Take, for example, your very own post-Shula Miami Dolphins. The Ricky Williams trade, which ended up costing 2 first round picks, is a prime example of the type of move that bad teams make to try to get better. The AJ Feely trade is another great example. While it is fun to blame Spielman (and he is well deserving of it), he was in a system where he had to get better soon or he would be gone. A 2nd round pick could not help him as immediately as a potential starting quarterback. The bad teams have coaches and GMs that make short term decisions in hopes of saving their jobs, but in reality, the NFL is not a short term league.
The other side of the coin is the good teams. I get heartburn thinking about it, but the antithesis of the Miami Dolphins right now is the Patriots. The Patriots have a solid foundation of players, are great up front on both sides of the ball, have a franchise quarterback, and have a shut down corner. They have no short term needs. So, what does this allow them to do? They consistently stockpile draft picks, taking advantage of the shortsighted poor teams (they will probably end up with the #2 pick this year thanks to the 49ers). Then, with these abundant draft picks, they are free to draft players who may not contribute immediately, but will eventually turn into starters for years down the road. They can plan for the future with cheap young players, a necessity in the NFL, and a luxury that the poor teams do not have (or at least don't think they have).
While that explains what the problem is in the NFL and what has caused this blatant lack of parity, it does not explain what I believe can be done to fix it. It may seem implicit in my writing that I believe that the coaches and GMs of the current have-nots should simply alter their strategy and think in the long term, but to the contrary I don't believe this is realistic. Not only are most coaches and GMs way too concerned with their own jobs and the pressures of winning now for this simple answer to work, which they are, but they are being hired to win games, sell tickets, and fill the seats. It is not their job to lose games so that some other regime can come in and take credit for what they built, and any owner who puts that much altruistic faith in his coach/GM is kidding himself and an idiot (see Dolan of the NBA).
The true answer is that the onus is on the ownership of the poor-performing NFL teams (and all teams) to hire long-term advisers and consultants to help guide and oversee the franchise. I'm not talking somebody experienced in business operations or a passing executive who will be gone in a few years. The Wayne Huizengas of the NFL need to have trustworthy sources with experience in NFL personnel operations on staff for the long term. No more Nick Sabans coming in and doing whatever they please. Somebody has to control what coaches and GMs are doing today to affect the franchise for years down the road. In most cases, the only person they have to answer to is the owner, but clearly Huizenga and the other owners need help in checking the power of these coaches and GMs.
The future of the National Football League is potentially in jeopardy. Parity has been of paramount importance for the success of the league, and it needs to stay that way. For the love of the game, and for the love of those of us who can't stand to see such poor play from such beloved teams, I beg the owners to create infrastructures that can control shortsighted coaches and GMs, and I beg that they step in when need be.
But suddenly it seems like the rich keep getting richer and the poor poorer. The consensus (although I question it) is that no team can beat the Pats, a team in the midst of what might be a dynasty. Baseball, with stories like the Mets and Rockies of this year, has become the anything can happen league, and football is starting to look like a caste system with little mobility. As Mr. Belding would say, What is going on here?
The guys fro ProFootballTalk.com would tell you that getting a high draft pick is no longer a reward, but rather a fiscal responsibility. Teams with top 5 picks have to commit a great deal of guaranteed money to unproven commodities, and a lot of the time this causes years of trouble in a league where the salary cap is so important. They believe that the system for determining the draft order actually punishes the worst teams in the league as opposed to helping them, and that the NFL should look into revamping the system.
While I think the PFT guys make a good point, there is something more going on here. Professional sports coaches are put on shorter and shorter leashes every year. Teams want to win, and they want to win quick. Even the obviously rebuilding Miami Dolphins were afraid to use that dreaded r-word for weeks this year because in the NFL, the here and now is all that matters. What have you done for me lately is a phrase that comes to mind. No coach's job is secure, and for that reason building a franchise is not enough. A coach/GM needs to build a franchise quickly.
So what ends up happening? The have-nots try to make like the post-Katrina Saints but fail, and year after year dig their hole deeper and deeper. Everybody spends their money looking for the quick fix and mortgage their future by creating salary cap problems for years and years. Take, for example, your very own post-Shula Miami Dolphins. The Ricky Williams trade, which ended up costing 2 first round picks, is a prime example of the type of move that bad teams make to try to get better. The AJ Feely trade is another great example. While it is fun to blame Spielman (and he is well deserving of it), he was in a system where he had to get better soon or he would be gone. A 2nd round pick could not help him as immediately as a potential starting quarterback. The bad teams have coaches and GMs that make short term decisions in hopes of saving their jobs, but in reality, the NFL is not a short term league.
The other side of the coin is the good teams. I get heartburn thinking about it, but the antithesis of the Miami Dolphins right now is the Patriots. The Patriots have a solid foundation of players, are great up front on both sides of the ball, have a franchise quarterback, and have a shut down corner. They have no short term needs. So, what does this allow them to do? They consistently stockpile draft picks, taking advantage of the shortsighted poor teams (they will probably end up with the #2 pick this year thanks to the 49ers). Then, with these abundant draft picks, they are free to draft players who may not contribute immediately, but will eventually turn into starters for years down the road. They can plan for the future with cheap young players, a necessity in the NFL, and a luxury that the poor teams do not have (or at least don't think they have).
While that explains what the problem is in the NFL and what has caused this blatant lack of parity, it does not explain what I believe can be done to fix it. It may seem implicit in my writing that I believe that the coaches and GMs of the current have-nots should simply alter their strategy and think in the long term, but to the contrary I don't believe this is realistic. Not only are most coaches and GMs way too concerned with their own jobs and the pressures of winning now for this simple answer to work, which they are, but they are being hired to win games, sell tickets, and fill the seats. It is not their job to lose games so that some other regime can come in and take credit for what they built, and any owner who puts that much altruistic faith in his coach/GM is kidding himself and an idiot (see Dolan of the NBA).
The true answer is that the onus is on the ownership of the poor-performing NFL teams (and all teams) to hire long-term advisers and consultants to help guide and oversee the franchise. I'm not talking somebody experienced in business operations or a passing executive who will be gone in a few years. The Wayne Huizengas of the NFL need to have trustworthy sources with experience in NFL personnel operations on staff for the long term. No more Nick Sabans coming in and doing whatever they please. Somebody has to control what coaches and GMs are doing today to affect the franchise for years down the road. In most cases, the only person they have to answer to is the owner, but clearly Huizenga and the other owners need help in checking the power of these coaches and GMs.
The future of the National Football League is potentially in jeopardy. Parity has been of paramount importance for the success of the league, and it needs to stay that way. For the love of the game, and for the love of those of us who can't stand to see such poor play from such beloved teams, I beg the owners to create infrastructures that can control shortsighted coaches and GMs, and I beg that they step in when need be.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Dolphins @ Eagles
I watched John Beck's first start from the comfort of my home. Here's what I saw:
-41 degrees, 15mph wind, and light rain in Philadelphia against Jim Johnson's defense...not ideal conditions for the first start of Beck's NFL career, but I think the idea that Cameron has is to get him some tough experience before his first win again the Jets in a couple of weeks.
-I'm not sure about Rod Wright. He has played a lot, but has been relatively invisible all year, part of the terrible run defense. On an early play he looked as slow as Keith Traylor while chasing McNabb.
-Jason Allen interception - I love it. Way too much time for McNabb to throw though.
-Nice drive by Beck early. He showed great feet when he eluded the rush and ran for a first down, and he had some nice strength throwing down the field. I could get used to hearing "Beck to Ginn."
-3rd and 11 on the Eagles 29 with 20 seconds left in the 1st quarter: another tactical error by Cameron. Run the ball, switch sides, and let Feely kick into the wind. Instead, we passed incomplete and had the field goal attempt knocked down by the wind.
-Beck is struggling with short passes, which is normal for a young quarterback. On the short passes he is throwing the ball too hard and has been inaccurate. It will probably take some time, but before too long he should develop that touch that veteran quarterbacks instinctively know when to use.
-I really liked a lot of what I saw from Beck, especially early, but it is easy to see that this is his first start. He needs to get used to being pressured by NFL defensive lines, and he needs to catch up to the speed of the game, but I think we might have a winner here.
-Lehan's corner blitz worked on two separate occasions. I like that better than him in coverage.
-Field's terrible punt out of the end zone cost Miami 3 points. These are 3 points in addition to the ones Cameron may have given up by not switching sides before Feely's field goal. All these points have really added up for us this year.
-I noted in the 2nd quarter that the Dolphins should try max protect to get some time to throw down the field, which Beck was doing very well.
-The linebackers did not play well today. We really missed Zach's knack for always being in the right hole and not missing tackles. A lot of our run defense issues today came down to linebackers being in the wrong place, allowing running backs to find huge alleys.
-I understand the theory that with a young quarterback you want to minimize the pass rush by running the ball often. However, running for 1 yard on every 1st down play doesn't do Beck any favors. An effective running game helps the young QB, but forcing obvious passing situations does the opposite.
-The only note I had from the entire second half of the game is that the run defense fell apart, but Jason Allen came to play.
-41 degrees, 15mph wind, and light rain in Philadelphia against Jim Johnson's defense...not ideal conditions for the first start of Beck's NFL career, but I think the idea that Cameron has is to get him some tough experience before his first win again the Jets in a couple of weeks.
-I'm not sure about Rod Wright. He has played a lot, but has been relatively invisible all year, part of the terrible run defense. On an early play he looked as slow as Keith Traylor while chasing McNabb.
-Jason Allen interception - I love it. Way too much time for McNabb to throw though.
-Nice drive by Beck early. He showed great feet when he eluded the rush and ran for a first down, and he had some nice strength throwing down the field. I could get used to hearing "Beck to Ginn."
-3rd and 11 on the Eagles 29 with 20 seconds left in the 1st quarter: another tactical error by Cameron. Run the ball, switch sides, and let Feely kick into the wind. Instead, we passed incomplete and had the field goal attempt knocked down by the wind.
-Beck is struggling with short passes, which is normal for a young quarterback. On the short passes he is throwing the ball too hard and has been inaccurate. It will probably take some time, but before too long he should develop that touch that veteran quarterbacks instinctively know when to use.
-I really liked a lot of what I saw from Beck, especially early, but it is easy to see that this is his first start. He needs to get used to being pressured by NFL defensive lines, and he needs to catch up to the speed of the game, but I think we might have a winner here.
-Lehan's corner blitz worked on two separate occasions. I like that better than him in coverage.
-Field's terrible punt out of the end zone cost Miami 3 points. These are 3 points in addition to the ones Cameron may have given up by not switching sides before Feely's field goal. All these points have really added up for us this year.
-I noted in the 2nd quarter that the Dolphins should try max protect to get some time to throw down the field, which Beck was doing very well.
-The linebackers did not play well today. We really missed Zach's knack for always being in the right hole and not missing tackles. A lot of our run defense issues today came down to linebackers being in the wrong place, allowing running backs to find huge alleys.
-I understand the theory that with a young quarterback you want to minimize the pass rush by running the ball often. However, running for 1 yard on every 1st down play doesn't do Beck any favors. An effective running game helps the young QB, but forcing obvious passing situations does the opposite.
-The only note I had from the entire second half of the game is that the run defense fell apart, but Jason Allen came to play.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Dolphins-Bills
I watched the Dolphins host the Bills from the comfort of a sports bar with way-too-small TVs and no audio, so my commentary might be a bit limited this week.
-One thing which has bothered me all year has been the Dolphins need for these short kickoffs. They are almost never successful, and they basically guarantee that the opponent will start past the 35. I don't understand the logic behind them, I don't like that Cameron/Armstrong keeps ordering them, and although I love Feely's kicking ability, I miss Mare's thunderous leg. Wouldn't it make sense to spend a roster spot on a kickoff specialist who could put it out of the end zone on a consistent basis?
-The Dolphins threw on a 3rd and 1 play early. At first, I got mad because it didn't work and it's always easy to blame play calling when something doesn't work. However, when I thought about it, I really liked the call. With all the defenders up in run support, a completion and missed tackle probably means a touchdown. Also, the Dolphins were in 4 down territory, so why not treat 3rd and 1 like 2nd and 1 when the defense can't afford to. It was actually relatively brilliant, especially had it worked. Likewise, going for it on 4th down was the right call (especially in light of throwing on 3rd down), but once again the Dolphins had nothing to blame but poor execution.
-If Cameron insists on starting Lemon because he gives us "the best chance at winning" and if he really wants to get a look at him as a quarterback in the midst of a lost season, he needs to let him throw the ball early in the game before the Dolphins fall behind. Every game, it seems like we run ourselves into the ground early, and then we score our points passing when it's already too late. Lemon seems to have some ability, but because of the conservative play calling, we don't really know. It has become very apparent that Cameron's reasoning for not making a switch at quarterback has a lot more to do with his plans for Beck and a lot less with winning.
-Pretty terrible work when you have a 2nd and 1 and a 2nd and 2 and you end up turning it over on downs and punting.
-The Dolphins D appears to have turned the corner and fixed whatever was wrong. The change in philosophy in the secondary a few weeks ago seems to really be working. Also, they are finishing plays and tackling as a team. However, they still can’t stop anybody when they need to. Every time the Dolphins do anything good on offense, they seem to fall apart immediately on defense.
-On the Bills 2 point conversion, Taylor slipped a block to the inside, but in doing so he made the block for Buffalo and created a hole by not taking his man on. That's not the type of responsibility football you'd like to see from your best player.
-Booker was absolutely horrible today. One play after Ginn had another work of beauty called back (by the way, did anybody see the hold or hear Camarillo's postgame commentary on the play...unbelievable), Booker dropped a completion that would've gone for 30+ yards to continue his horrible day. Sure, the Dolphins got cheated maybe out of a victory on the Ginn return, but it's not like they didn't have their chances.
-Why do I have to watch the most important plays of the game on these impossible camera angles?
-Even when we control the entire game, we find a way to lose. The Bills making the play when it counts and the Dolphins getting called back show the difference in what a good special teams will do. Never have I missed Mike Westhoff more.
-How fitting that the game ends on a ball Booker could have caught. The 3rd failed slant to him of the day.
-One thing which has bothered me all year has been the Dolphins need for these short kickoffs. They are almost never successful, and they basically guarantee that the opponent will start past the 35. I don't understand the logic behind them, I don't like that Cameron/Armstrong keeps ordering them, and although I love Feely's kicking ability, I miss Mare's thunderous leg. Wouldn't it make sense to spend a roster spot on a kickoff specialist who could put it out of the end zone on a consistent basis?
-The Dolphins threw on a 3rd and 1 play early. At first, I got mad because it didn't work and it's always easy to blame play calling when something doesn't work. However, when I thought about it, I really liked the call. With all the defenders up in run support, a completion and missed tackle probably means a touchdown. Also, the Dolphins were in 4 down territory, so why not treat 3rd and 1 like 2nd and 1 when the defense can't afford to. It was actually relatively brilliant, especially had it worked. Likewise, going for it on 4th down was the right call (especially in light of throwing on 3rd down), but once again the Dolphins had nothing to blame but poor execution.
-If Cameron insists on starting Lemon because he gives us "the best chance at winning" and if he really wants to get a look at him as a quarterback in the midst of a lost season, he needs to let him throw the ball early in the game before the Dolphins fall behind. Every game, it seems like we run ourselves into the ground early, and then we score our points passing when it's already too late. Lemon seems to have some ability, but because of the conservative play calling, we don't really know. It has become very apparent that Cameron's reasoning for not making a switch at quarterback has a lot more to do with his plans for Beck and a lot less with winning.
-Pretty terrible work when you have a 2nd and 1 and a 2nd and 2 and you end up turning it over on downs and punting.
-The Dolphins D appears to have turned the corner and fixed whatever was wrong. The change in philosophy in the secondary a few weeks ago seems to really be working. Also, they are finishing plays and tackling as a team. However, they still can’t stop anybody when they need to. Every time the Dolphins do anything good on offense, they seem to fall apart immediately on defense.
-On the Bills 2 point conversion, Taylor slipped a block to the inside, but in doing so he made the block for Buffalo and created a hole by not taking his man on. That's not the type of responsibility football you'd like to see from your best player.
-Booker was absolutely horrible today. One play after Ginn had another work of beauty called back (by the way, did anybody see the hold or hear Camarillo's postgame commentary on the play...unbelievable), Booker dropped a completion that would've gone for 30+ yards to continue his horrible day. Sure, the Dolphins got cheated maybe out of a victory on the Ginn return, but it's not like they didn't have their chances.
-Why do I have to watch the most important plays of the game on these impossible camera angles?
-Even when we control the entire game, we find a way to lose. The Bills making the play when it counts and the Dolphins getting called back show the difference in what a good special teams will do. Never have I missed Mike Westhoff more.
-How fitting that the game ends on a ball Booker could have caught. The 3rd failed slant to him of the day.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Chambers Trade
Note: although this post concentrates mostly on Chambers' value, I really believe the most important aspect of the trade was the ramifications of getting a very valuable 2nd round pick for him, especially for a (dare I say) rebuilding team like the Dolphins.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
So, we traded Chambers and it seems ambivalence ensues, at least for you...here's something that might make you feel a little better.
According to footballoutsiders.com, what I consider to be the best statistical reference site for the NFL, Chambers is a below average starting wide receiver. The way FootballOutsiders works is they measure a player's value over a replacement player, much like the concepts that Moneyball GMs in baseball use.
The two statistics that you will see are DPAR (defense adjusted points above replacement) and DVOA (defense adjusted value over average). Both statistics control for the quality of defense that you play against, and DPAR measures the number of points scored due to plays where this WR caught the ball compared to a replacement-level (backup) WR, while DVOA measures what percentage better a wide receiver is than the average wide receiver in the same situations. DPAR means a wide receiver with more total value. DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play.
It sounds complicated, but you can trust that they are very good measures of how good a receiver is. If you would like to do some research for yourself, they are very thoroughly described here:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dpar
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dvoa
This season, where Chambers is having a pretty solid year (415 yards in 6 games puts him on pace for 1,000), he ranks 56th in the NFL in DPAR and 58th in DVOA among 76 players ranked. You thought he was better than that, didn't you? He is 11.8% worse than the average wide receiver and has only caught 47% of passes thrown his way. Marty Booker, the Dolphins quiet #2 receiver, ranks higher than him in terms of value. Convinced yet?
Well I've got more for you anyway. In 2006, Chambers ranked dead last in the NFL among the 82 players who had at least 50 passes thrown their way during the season. LAST. What's even more embarrassing...it wasn't even close. The #1 receiver, Reggie Wayne, had a DPAR of 46. Marty Booker was pretty high ranking #26 at 16.9. Wes Welker, in his Miami Dolphin glory days, ranked #46 at 9.6. The #81 ranked (2nd to last) receiver in the league, A. Whitted from Oakland, had a DPAR of -8.9. Chambers was at an astounding -19.8 (over 10 points worse than the 2nd worst player!), and he ranked over 33% worse than a mere AVERAGE receiver in the NFL in terms of DVOA. All of this actually prompted FootballOutsiders to write an article
about how he is not a #1 receiver in the NFL (unfortunately, I can't find it in the archives).
No fear, Chambers had a bad year last year with instability at quarterback. Surely in 2005, when he broke 1,000 yards and scored 11 touchdowns, he would get some DPAR/DVOA respect. Guess again my friend. In 2005, Chambers ranked #62 in the league in DPAR, again behind both Welker and Booker (in that order in 2005), and #73 in DVOA, 11.3% worse than an average wide receiver. That's right, if you put an average wide receiver in Chambers place in 2005 (say, Michael Jenkins from Atlanta), he would have had a better year and been more valuable than Chambers. Even in Chambers' career year, he only caught 49% of passes thrown in his direction.
Obviously, no statistic is perfect. However, if you read the description of these stats or even simply take a look at who the top rated receivers in terms of DPAR are (for the sake of concurrent validity), you will see that these are very good statistics. If your natural inclination is to make the argument that quarterbacks and offensive systems have a lot to do with how successful a receiver is, even within the scope of these statistics, then you are right, that's a good argument to make. However, the fact of the matter is that (a) Chambers is so far down on these lists that quarterbacks cannot account for that much variance and (b) Booker and Welker consistently had better DPARs even with the same quarterbacks and offenses.
Combine all of this info with the fact that a second round pick is HUGE in terms of value, and you have a great trade by Mueller and Co. They took advantage of a regime in San Diego with their jobs on the line, therefore willing to mortgage their future. I might've felt ambivalent about letting Chambers go for a 3rd round pick, but a 2nd rounder is a no-brainer. I'll miss Chambers some, and I wish him the best of luck in the future, but this was the right move for the Miami Dolphins.
note: Here are links to the Wide Receiver ranking on footballoutsiders.com
for 2007, 2006, and 2005, respectively:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr.php
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2006.php
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2005.php
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
So, we traded Chambers and it seems ambivalence ensues, at least for you...here's something that might make you feel a little better.
According to footballoutsiders.com, what I consider to be the best statistical reference site for the NFL, Chambers is a below average starting wide receiver. The way FootballOutsiders works is they measure a player's value over a replacement player, much like the concepts that Moneyball GMs in baseball use.
The two statistics that you will see are DPAR (defense adjusted points above replacement) and DVOA (defense adjusted value over average). Both statistics control for the quality of defense that you play against, and DPAR measures the number of points scored due to plays where this WR caught the ball compared to a replacement-level (backup) WR, while DVOA measures what percentage better a wide receiver is than the average wide receiver in the same situations. DPAR means a wide receiver with more total value. DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play.
It sounds complicated, but you can trust that they are very good measures of how good a receiver is. If you would like to do some research for yourself, they are very thoroughly described here:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dpar
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dvoa
This season, where Chambers is having a pretty solid year (415 yards in 6 games puts him on pace for 1,000), he ranks 56th in the NFL in DPAR and 58th in DVOA among 76 players ranked. You thought he was better than that, didn't you? He is 11.8% worse than the average wide receiver and has only caught 47% of passes thrown his way. Marty Booker, the Dolphins quiet #2 receiver, ranks higher than him in terms of value. Convinced yet?
Well I've got more for you anyway. In 2006, Chambers ranked dead last in the NFL among the 82 players who had at least 50 passes thrown their way during the season. LAST. What's even more embarrassing...it wasn't even close. The #1 receiver, Reggie Wayne, had a DPAR of 46. Marty Booker was pretty high ranking #26 at 16.9. Wes Welker, in his Miami Dolphin glory days, ranked #46 at 9.6. The #81 ranked (2nd to last) receiver in the league, A. Whitted from Oakland, had a DPAR of -8.9. Chambers was at an astounding -19.8 (over 10 points worse than the 2nd worst player!), and he ranked over 33% worse than a mere AVERAGE receiver in the NFL in terms of DVOA. All of this actually prompted FootballOutsiders to write an article
about how he is not a #1 receiver in the NFL (unfortunately, I can't find it in the archives).
No fear, Chambers had a bad year last year with instability at quarterback. Surely in 2005, when he broke 1,000 yards and scored 11 touchdowns, he would get some DPAR/DVOA respect. Guess again my friend. In 2005, Chambers ranked #62 in the league in DPAR, again behind both Welker and Booker (in that order in 2005), and #73 in DVOA, 11.3% worse than an average wide receiver. That's right, if you put an average wide receiver in Chambers place in 2005 (say, Michael Jenkins from Atlanta), he would have had a better year and been more valuable than Chambers. Even in Chambers' career year, he only caught 49% of passes thrown in his direction.
Obviously, no statistic is perfect. However, if you read the description of these stats or even simply take a look at who the top rated receivers in terms of DPAR are (for the sake of concurrent validity), you will see that these are very good statistics. If your natural inclination is to make the argument that quarterbacks and offensive systems have a lot to do with how successful a receiver is, even within the scope of these statistics, then you are right, that's a good argument to make. However, the fact of the matter is that (a) Chambers is so far down on these lists that quarterbacks cannot account for that much variance and (b) Booker and Welker consistently had better DPARs even with the same quarterbacks and offenses.
Combine all of this info with the fact that a second round pick is HUGE in terms of value, and you have a great trade by Mueller and Co. They took advantage of a regime in San Diego with their jobs on the line, therefore willing to mortgage their future. I might've felt ambivalent about letting Chambers go for a 3rd round pick, but a 2nd rounder is a no-brainer. I'll miss Chambers some, and I wish him the best of luck in the future, but this was the right move for the Miami Dolphins.
note: Here are links to the Wide Receiver ranking on footballoutsiders.com
for 2007, 2006, and 2005, respectively:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr.php
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2006.php
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2005.php
Thursday, October 4, 2007
3 Major Developments
Here are 3 major points to take away from the Dolphins-Cowboys game:
1. It's not Ronnie's fault.
I know a lot of Dolphins fans like to criticize Ronnie Brown's supposed lack of productivity over the early course of his career, and it's especially easy to do this when the Dolphins are losing and he isn't getting the ball. However, Ronnie has shown consistently since he was drafted that he is a good running back in the NFL. When he has holes, he hits them hard, makes defenders pay, and can break some long runs. When he doesn't have holes (which is most of the time), he works as hard as any running back in the league to get every possible yard. Yes he does sometimes hesitate, but more often than not he is trying to set up his blocks and give the line a chance to get something to develop. I believe that Ronnie has been and continues to be a victim of poor blocking in front of him.
In the first half against the Cowboys, Ronnie didn't see one hole. I don't understand how Dolphins fans and media can criticize him for this. He ran hard anyway. To start the second half, Ronnie got one big hole, which he turned into a 12 yard gain, and then he got another big gain when there wasn't even much doing. They went on to score a touchdown that drive, but from then on he didn't see the ball because of 2 factors. The line wasn't opening anything up for the running game, and a couple of turnovers led to the Dolphins having to play catch-up, so they abandoned the run altogether. With all this being the case, how come people are calling for Ronnie's head? I simply don't see how any of this is his fault.
2. The tackling needs to improve.
This was the real killer against the Cowboys, and it needs to improve or else the Dolphins are in for a long season. Tackling killed us against the Redskins, too, and there is simply no reason for it. Tackling is the basis of any defense, the most important thing you can do on that side of the ball (blocking being its counterpart), and the status quo is unacceptable.
There were numerous times I noted to myself during the game when poor tackling or an inability to finish a play cost us big. In the first quarter it cost us, with even Jason Taylor getting involved in the act. There were missed sacks that turned into first downs. There was an instance where Taylor (again) idiotically ripped at the ball ON 3RD DOWN instead of tackling the ball carrier (we were bailed out by a holding). As I mentioned, Marion Barber's ran through several arm tackles on his touchdown run.
I stopped noting most of the missed tackles once the second half rolled around (but who could forget the play where Taylor was in perfect position to nail Romo, but instead was made to look like a fool), but the damage was done in the first half. The Cowboys controlled the ball for 19 minutes as a result of the missed tackles keeping drives alive, and the lack of time of possession for the Dolphins took Ronnie Brown out of the game and forced Trent Green to start forcing things on offense. This is a counter intuitive claim, but I believe the play of the defense was just as responsible as the offense for the turnover problems. Missed tackles led to long drives for the Cowboys, which led to the Dolphins inability develop a rhythm on offense (and the aforementioned problems for Brown and Green) and eventually turnovers. (Note: I know critics of my analysis would say that the turnovers and lack of productivity on offense are what led to the time of possession swing in the first place, but only one of the turnovers was in the first half, and the length of the Cowboys drives are what led to the time of possession swing, not the Dolphins going 3 and out over and over again).
3. The Dolphins defensive philosophy/scheme needs to change.
On defense, there are really two ways you can go about your business. You can be a reactionary defense or you can force the offense to become a reactionary offense. In the JJ/Wanny years, the Dolphins had defensive success with a reactionary defense because they were built for one. The had great, aggressive corners who could make plays on their own, great defensive ends who could get to the passer on their own, and a run defense anchored by Zach Thomas. Whatever the opposition did, the Dolphins could react to it and stop it. Very simple. Very effective.
In the Saban era, the Dolphins defense accomplished great things on defense by being the aggressors and forcing the offense to react to what they were doing. Much like Belichick's defense in New England, Saban would show the offense a different, disguised look on every play, and it would be up to the offense to figure it out. You never knew where the blitz was coming from, and just when you thought your only safe bet was that the blitz was coming, you would have max protect against 8 defenders in coverage. It is easy to see how this type of defense can affect a quarterback and force some bad decisions.
Saban built his defensive personnel to fit this scheme by bringing in a gap-filling nose tackle, a versatile group of linebackers (including drafting Crowder and converting Taylor), and a cover 2 secondary (the safeties are the focus instead of the corners...unfortunately Jason Allen never panned out). He had a lot of success by moving Taylor around and really unleashing the absolute terror that he could be. The Dolphins got to the quarterback, and whenever you can do that, good things happen for the defense.
Saban left, but Capers stayed, so everybody assumed that the defense would stay mostly the same. The Dolphins also brought in Joey Porter, a guy who had a lot of success in this aggressive-style defense in the past, and even though he had his critics, everybody assumed he would at least help Taylor have even more success, a scary proposition considering the year the defensive MVP had. However, somewhere along the line, the Dolphins defense fell back into being reactionary, and the problem is that the Dolphins are no longer build for it.
Instead of getting Taylor and Porter up and moving around, offensive coordinators have been able to get both of them into 3 point stances the majority of the time, causing them to become simple, traditional defensive ends. Predictably, not only have they not been effective, but the Dolphins haven't gotten anywhere near opposing quarterbacks on a consistent basis. Slide the protection towards Taylor and match Porter against a tackle, and they are effectively neutralized. Romo felt no pressure all day, and when a defense built to be the aggressor is forced to play as the reactor, a whole lot of weaknesses show up. The Dolphins no longer have the cover corners they used to, and they only have one player who serves as a true defensive tackle. Take your pick of how you would like to beat them.
All day against the Dolphins, the Cowboys did just that. Marion Barber ran all over the place, hardly ever even slowed down. Romo had a field day, too. He hardly ever felt pressure, giving him time to pick apart the zone. When the Dolphins went man, it was that much easier for him, because with nobody on the Dolphins even close to being a good enough cover man to stay with T.O. (they even tried Renaldo Hill), he was open on every 3rd down. Daniels, bless his soul, is not a man corner in the NFL. They either need to keep him in zone or get him off the field (they opted to move him to safety).
It comes down to this. The Dolphins made a mistake when they decided to ever have Joey Porter play with his hand on the ground. The Redskins exploited it, and now that the Cowboys have too, they need to fix it. However, if the Dolphins concede that they cannot create a pass rush and get to the quarterback, they will lose every game. This personnel group cannot be successful playing as a reactionary defense, but I still have faith that they can be a great defense if they recommit to being the aggressor. The Dolphins defense is facing adversity, and for it to regain its form, it will take the counter intuitive move by Capers and Co. to not try to fix its weaknesses, but instead to put more focus on exploiting its strengths.
1. It's not Ronnie's fault.
I know a lot of Dolphins fans like to criticize Ronnie Brown's supposed lack of productivity over the early course of his career, and it's especially easy to do this when the Dolphins are losing and he isn't getting the ball. However, Ronnie has shown consistently since he was drafted that he is a good running back in the NFL. When he has holes, he hits them hard, makes defenders pay, and can break some long runs. When he doesn't have holes (which is most of the time), he works as hard as any running back in the league to get every possible yard. Yes he does sometimes hesitate, but more often than not he is trying to set up his blocks and give the line a chance to get something to develop. I believe that Ronnie has been and continues to be a victim of poor blocking in front of him.
In the first half against the Cowboys, Ronnie didn't see one hole. I don't understand how Dolphins fans and media can criticize him for this. He ran hard anyway. To start the second half, Ronnie got one big hole, which he turned into a 12 yard gain, and then he got another big gain when there wasn't even much doing. They went on to score a touchdown that drive, but from then on he didn't see the ball because of 2 factors. The line wasn't opening anything up for the running game, and a couple of turnovers led to the Dolphins having to play catch-up, so they abandoned the run altogether. With all this being the case, how come people are calling for Ronnie's head? I simply don't see how any of this is his fault.
2. The tackling needs to improve.
This was the real killer against the Cowboys, and it needs to improve or else the Dolphins are in for a long season. Tackling killed us against the Redskins, too, and there is simply no reason for it. Tackling is the basis of any defense, the most important thing you can do on that side of the ball (blocking being its counterpart), and the status quo is unacceptable.
There were numerous times I noted to myself during the game when poor tackling or an inability to finish a play cost us big. In the first quarter it cost us, with even Jason Taylor getting involved in the act. There were missed sacks that turned into first downs. There was an instance where Taylor (again) idiotically ripped at the ball ON 3RD DOWN instead of tackling the ball carrier (we were bailed out by a holding). As I mentioned, Marion Barber's ran through several arm tackles on his touchdown run.
I stopped noting most of the missed tackles once the second half rolled around (but who could forget the play where Taylor was in perfect position to nail Romo, but instead was made to look like a fool), but the damage was done in the first half. The Cowboys controlled the ball for 19 minutes as a result of the missed tackles keeping drives alive, and the lack of time of possession for the Dolphins took Ronnie Brown out of the game and forced Trent Green to start forcing things on offense. This is a counter intuitive claim, but I believe the play of the defense was just as responsible as the offense for the turnover problems. Missed tackles led to long drives for the Cowboys, which led to the Dolphins inability develop a rhythm on offense (and the aforementioned problems for Brown and Green) and eventually turnovers. (Note: I know critics of my analysis would say that the turnovers and lack of productivity on offense are what led to the time of possession swing in the first place, but only one of the turnovers was in the first half, and the length of the Cowboys drives are what led to the time of possession swing, not the Dolphins going 3 and out over and over again).
3. The Dolphins defensive philosophy/scheme needs to change.
On defense, there are really two ways you can go about your business. You can be a reactionary defense or you can force the offense to become a reactionary offense. In the JJ/Wanny years, the Dolphins had defensive success with a reactionary defense because they were built for one. The had great, aggressive corners who could make plays on their own, great defensive ends who could get to the passer on their own, and a run defense anchored by Zach Thomas. Whatever the opposition did, the Dolphins could react to it and stop it. Very simple. Very effective.
In the Saban era, the Dolphins defense accomplished great things on defense by being the aggressors and forcing the offense to react to what they were doing. Much like Belichick's defense in New England, Saban would show the offense a different, disguised look on every play, and it would be up to the offense to figure it out. You never knew where the blitz was coming from, and just when you thought your only safe bet was that the blitz was coming, you would have max protect against 8 defenders in coverage. It is easy to see how this type of defense can affect a quarterback and force some bad decisions.
Saban built his defensive personnel to fit this scheme by bringing in a gap-filling nose tackle, a versatile group of linebackers (including drafting Crowder and converting Taylor), and a cover 2 secondary (the safeties are the focus instead of the corners...unfortunately Jason Allen never panned out). He had a lot of success by moving Taylor around and really unleashing the absolute terror that he could be. The Dolphins got to the quarterback, and whenever you can do that, good things happen for the defense.
Saban left, but Capers stayed, so everybody assumed that the defense would stay mostly the same. The Dolphins also brought in Joey Porter, a guy who had a lot of success in this aggressive-style defense in the past, and even though he had his critics, everybody assumed he would at least help Taylor have even more success, a scary proposition considering the year the defensive MVP had. However, somewhere along the line, the Dolphins defense fell back into being reactionary, and the problem is that the Dolphins are no longer build for it.
Instead of getting Taylor and Porter up and moving around, offensive coordinators have been able to get both of them into 3 point stances the majority of the time, causing them to become simple, traditional defensive ends. Predictably, not only have they not been effective, but the Dolphins haven't gotten anywhere near opposing quarterbacks on a consistent basis. Slide the protection towards Taylor and match Porter against a tackle, and they are effectively neutralized. Romo felt no pressure all day, and when a defense built to be the aggressor is forced to play as the reactor, a whole lot of weaknesses show up. The Dolphins no longer have the cover corners they used to, and they only have one player who serves as a true defensive tackle. Take your pick of how you would like to beat them.
All day against the Dolphins, the Cowboys did just that. Marion Barber ran all over the place, hardly ever even slowed down. Romo had a field day, too. He hardly ever felt pressure, giving him time to pick apart the zone. When the Dolphins went man, it was that much easier for him, because with nobody on the Dolphins even close to being a good enough cover man to stay with T.O. (they even tried Renaldo Hill), he was open on every 3rd down. Daniels, bless his soul, is not a man corner in the NFL. They either need to keep him in zone or get him off the field (they opted to move him to safety).
It comes down to this. The Dolphins made a mistake when they decided to ever have Joey Porter play with his hand on the ground. The Redskins exploited it, and now that the Cowboys have too, they need to fix it. However, if the Dolphins concede that they cannot create a pass rush and get to the quarterback, they will lose every game. This personnel group cannot be successful playing as a reactionary defense, but I still have faith that they can be a great defense if they recommit to being the aggressor. The Dolphins defense is facing adversity, and for it to regain its form, it will take the counter intuitive move by Capers and Co. to not try to fix its weaknesses, but instead to put more focus on exploiting its strengths.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Dolphins-Cowboys Overview
For the Cowboys game I am going to start with a relatively brief overview of what went on, and then move on to some themes and story lines in my next post. Remember, I'm still just experimenting with different formats, so bear with me.
The Dolphins started the game pretty well actually, and believe it or not it was Trent Green who was leading them early. The line started poorly, not opening up any holes for Ronnie. 2 fifteen yard penalties hurt the Dolphins, but after the first quarter the score was 3-3. Even though it didn't work, I liked the decision to call a time out to make the Cowboys kick off of the dirt.
The Dolphins missed a lot of tackles and a few opportunities for turnovers in the 2nd quarter. The pass rush was also nonexistent, and nobody seemed to want to cover T.O. on 3rd downs. Marion Barber ran through a couple of arm tackles (how apropos) to open up a 10-3 lead for the 'Boys.
Green continued to carry the Dolphins offense squarely on his shoulders en route to a field goal before halftime, 10-6. There seemed to be a lot of openings when the Dolphins went to the hurry up. However, Green missed high on a few throws, a problem which would haunt him in the second half.
Although the score was only 10-6 at halftime, the game was well on its way to being lost. The line could not open up any holes for Ronnie, and the receivers were not getting open with any degree of consistency. It was clear that Trent was going to have to do quite a bit on his own if the Dolphins were going to stay in the game. On defense, although only 10 points were allowed, they allowed the Cowboys to hold the ball for 19 minutes. They weren't tackling and there was no pass rush. To be blunt, they were getting beaten.
The first drive of the second half was a thing of beauty. The line got a good push, and Ronnie always seems to make the best out of any holes he's given. Play action opened up, and Chambers made a great catch. The real catalyst for Miami on the drive was Green, who went 4-4 if my memory serves me right, including a beautiful touchdown to Booker. I wrote a note to myself that said simply, "Trent Green is a QB." 13-10 Dolphins.
When all the momentum seemed to be in Miami's favor, a TERRIBLE penalty forced the Dolphins to re-kick. The penalty ended up costing the Dolphins 55 yards, and I'm pretty sure the culprit was Jason Allen, everybody's favorite. Momentum: Cowboys. A couple of plays later, Travis Daniels had an atrocious pass interference penalty, leading to a Cowboys touchdown and the lead for good. 17-13 Cowboys.
The next 2 Dolphins drives ended with physical (more on the importance of this distinction later) mistakes by Trent Green. He overthrew Chambers by a long shot for a pick, and later he fumbled a snap. The Cowboys converted field goals after both of these, 23-13. These are the types of mistakes which will happen to all quarterbacks from time to time, but unfortunately the Cowboys are too good and Green had to do too much to overcome them, and he never recovered.
The defense bended without breaking for a while, but throughout the rest of the game they continued with poor tackling, poor pass rush, allowing long drives, and not covering anybody on 3rd down. The end result was 37 points allowed.
The offense and particularly Trent Green showed today that it could play well when executing. However, they are not good enough yet to play from behind, and even though Green is more of a quarterback than the Dolphins have seen in a while, he is not Peyton Manning or Tom Brady and cannot win games on his own, as he was forced to try to today. I will elaborate more on him later, because I believe his 4 interceptions today are a bit misleading when analyzing how well he played.
The Dolphins started the game pretty well actually, and believe it or not it was Trent Green who was leading them early. The line started poorly, not opening up any holes for Ronnie. 2 fifteen yard penalties hurt the Dolphins, but after the first quarter the score was 3-3. Even though it didn't work, I liked the decision to call a time out to make the Cowboys kick off of the dirt.
The Dolphins missed a lot of tackles and a few opportunities for turnovers in the 2nd quarter. The pass rush was also nonexistent, and nobody seemed to want to cover T.O. on 3rd downs. Marion Barber ran through a couple of arm tackles (how apropos) to open up a 10-3 lead for the 'Boys.
Green continued to carry the Dolphins offense squarely on his shoulders en route to a field goal before halftime, 10-6. There seemed to be a lot of openings when the Dolphins went to the hurry up. However, Green missed high on a few throws, a problem which would haunt him in the second half.
Although the score was only 10-6 at halftime, the game was well on its way to being lost. The line could not open up any holes for Ronnie, and the receivers were not getting open with any degree of consistency. It was clear that Trent was going to have to do quite a bit on his own if the Dolphins were going to stay in the game. On defense, although only 10 points were allowed, they allowed the Cowboys to hold the ball for 19 minutes. They weren't tackling and there was no pass rush. To be blunt, they were getting beaten.
The first drive of the second half was a thing of beauty. The line got a good push, and Ronnie always seems to make the best out of any holes he's given. Play action opened up, and Chambers made a great catch. The real catalyst for Miami on the drive was Green, who went 4-4 if my memory serves me right, including a beautiful touchdown to Booker. I wrote a note to myself that said simply, "Trent Green is a QB." 13-10 Dolphins.
When all the momentum seemed to be in Miami's favor, a TERRIBLE penalty forced the Dolphins to re-kick. The penalty ended up costing the Dolphins 55 yards, and I'm pretty sure the culprit was Jason Allen, everybody's favorite. Momentum: Cowboys. A couple of plays later, Travis Daniels had an atrocious pass interference penalty, leading to a Cowboys touchdown and the lead for good. 17-13 Cowboys.
The next 2 Dolphins drives ended with physical (more on the importance of this distinction later) mistakes by Trent Green. He overthrew Chambers by a long shot for a pick, and later he fumbled a snap. The Cowboys converted field goals after both of these, 23-13. These are the types of mistakes which will happen to all quarterbacks from time to time, but unfortunately the Cowboys are too good and Green had to do too much to overcome them, and he never recovered.
The defense bended without breaking for a while, but throughout the rest of the game they continued with poor tackling, poor pass rush, allowing long drives, and not covering anybody on 3rd down. The end result was 37 points allowed.
The offense and particularly Trent Green showed today that it could play well when executing. However, they are not good enough yet to play from behind, and even though Green is more of a quarterback than the Dolphins have seen in a while, he is not Peyton Manning or Tom Brady and cannot win games on his own, as he was forced to try to today. I will elaborate more on him later, because I believe his 4 interceptions today are a bit misleading when analyzing how well he played.
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Dolphins-Redskins Commentary
NOTE (from the future): Columns from before the start of the 2008 season are a little bit all over the place. I was doing a lot of experimenting with how I want to write this blog, and a lot of the posts either never made it to the inter-web or moved from my notebook to the computer way after the fact. I'll make note of the ones that were added later, but the notes were all current when they were written anyway. The following is the first real post that I wrote, following the 2007 week 1 Dolphins-Redskins game.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
For the Redskins game my commentary might be a little thin (note: it actually ended up being quite extensive). I actually traveled out to Washington for the game (nice stadium, the end zones are right on top of the field at FedEx, which creates a nice advantage...also, as smart a crowd as I've ever seen at a football game), so I didn't get to take any notes and didn't get the benefit of replays. However, the big points were pretty clear, so I can hit on that well.
First the game run down:
The offense right off the bat and throughout looked pretty consistently inconsistent. There were glimmers of the astute play calling of Cameron, but it didn't matter because the Dolphins didn't execute consistently. In fact, the offense looked strikingly similar to Dolphins offenses of years past to the naked eye. However, if you looked closer, you could see little strings of successful plays, Trent Green doing some really nice things, and Cameron's knack for exploiting match-ups. Nevertheless, it was the same story, and if the stupid penalties, missed responsibilities, and dropped passes continue to hinder Miami, we are going to see more of the same results.
An interception on the first defensive series was great to see. However, penalties held the Fins back early. An illegal formation negated an 8 yard Ronnie run to start the drive; my old football coach used to always say that there is nothing in the playbook for 1st and 15, and it's true how damaging those penalties really are. A 25 yard penalty on special teams later cost the Fins good field position. A 2nd and 3 became 3rd and 12 because of penalties again, and the Skins went up 3-0 despite being outplayed.
The defense looked good early. It was interesting to see Taylor and Porter as down linemen in the dime package. On offense, the no huddle had some success early. The offensive line was not opening up any holes, but Chambers started to get involved, which was nice to see. It will be interesting to see what type of receiver Chambers is this year because as of now we really don't know. He's never had a really good quarterback, and he's never really solidified himself as a number 1 receiver in the NFL (in fact, his value over replacement player (VORP...or here as DPAR) ratings from footballoutsiders.com show how downright bad he can be... http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2006.php). Hopefully, with Trent Green and Cam Cameron, we'll learn who the real Chris Chambers really is and if he's worth hanging on to.
The time management before halftime was downright unacceptable. However, give credit to Cameron for being gutsy and apparently knowing his team and going for it...it worked, so everybody is happy. More on this later...
On the first drive after halftime, we learned something we already knew. Travis Daniels is not a man to man cornerback in the NFL. He has been great with the Dolphins since he was drafted, and I am a big fan of his, but the fact of the matter is that Dolphins cannot leave him in man without taking a huge risk. It's also worth noting that Randle El is a great athlete, and he proved it on this day. Portis scoring on the 19 yard TD run was a horror to watch, but the scary thing was that it was only the beginning of Miami getting run over this year.
Now, with about 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, the Dolphins had 4th and goal on the Washington 1. Remember that before HALFTIME, when field position is irrelevant, the Dolphins decided to go for a TD with 4 seconds left and succeeded. However, in this situation, Cameron sent Feely on to tie the game. While I do understand that the score becomes more relevant to these decisions as the game nears the 4th quarter, I do not understand how our gutsy, young head coach can make the objectively ill-advised move of going for the TD just before halftime, risking leaving with nothing, and then kick a field goal late in the 3rd quarter when at the very least, we leave the Skins backed up to their own 1. For now, I'll give Cameron the benefit of the doubt in knowing the situation or something that I potentially didn't know, but I hope this type of decision doesn't become a habit in the future.
The one thing that I fear about losing Mare is losing the touchbacks. You can't overstate how important those are.
I didn't see exactly what happened with Taylor's roughness penalty, but he usually doesn't make stupid plays like that without good reason. I stand by him out of loyalty. The one thing that I can't stand by is if he continues to be so quiet in the pass rush. He is a difference maker, and though I might be spoiled by the Taylor of last year, he needs to be the best player on the field for the Dolphins to win games. The one sack was nice, but where was the usual Jason affecting every play for the rest of the game?
The Redskins drive which culminated with them taking a 13-10 lead was almost exclusively on the ground. This is when I started to really get frustrated with the defense. If there is one thing that I can't stand, it is a defense that gets pushed around and can't stop the run even when they know it's coming. It's really disheartening.
The Dolphins next drive was great. It was the type of drive that you usually see teams make against the Dolphins after a big score. They marched down the field, and looked like a real offense...until they got to the 8. Holding, grounding, and it was 2nd and goal from the 28. Field goal. No lead. And our fate was (at least partially) decided by a coin flip.
When the Dolphins got the ball back before OT, and Green made that too-perfect pass to Fred Smoot (nightmares of Fiedler to Tory James in the playoffs a few years ago), I had to question the decision to throw a sideline pass with 28 seconds left. Either be conservative or aggressive with 1 minute left. Please, no more high-risk low-reward plays in that type of situation.
Crazy play to end regulation. I can smile about it because it didn't affect the outcome. Give Taylor credit because right after he knocked the ball down (to Randle El unfortunately), he made the tackle and actually forced a fumble.
I don't want to talk about overtime. I told you how I feel about being run over and powerless, and this overtime was absolutely embarrassing. That type of play makes me sick to my stomach, and it was clear that the Redskins had the Dolphins personnel match-ups figured out and exploited them.
Notes:
Trent Green played a nice game in his first start with the Dolphins. He is a confident and competent leader, and he played the quarterback position with a sence of poise that we haven't seen in Miami since you-know-who.
Ronnie Brown did not see the ball as much as I would've liked, but I don't blame this on him. Throughout all of the criticism he has received for not living up to the hype of a #2 overall pick, he has been a hard working back who has always made the most out of what he's been given. He runs hard, delivers hits, protects the ball, has speed, catches passes, and hits the hole WHEN IT IS THERE. The only problem has been that holes haven't been there for the last few years. So, he gets the unwarranted criticism that he is a dancer. If I had to run behind the Dolphins O-lines the last couple of years, I wouldn't dance. I would run the other direction. In this game, the situational factors of the line not opening anything up and Cameron wanting to test Chatman lead to less carries for Ronnie. We have got to get him the ball, but more importantly (and Cameron knows this), we need to get him the ball in situations where he can be successful. Let's see how this develops over the course of the season.
The O-line needs to get better. Decent pass protection, but no running room. If you want a successful offense, it starts up front. These guys are going to be the key to Cameron running the type of stuff that he would like.
The defensive line looked as bad as it has in quite some time. There was very little pass rush all day, and the way they got run over at the end was flat out terrible. This unit is what dictates the success of the defense. We need to pressure the quarterback and dictate play on this side of the ball, and that didn't happen today.
The backers and secondary were what we thought they were. Zach, Channing, and Joey will do as much as the guys in front of them allow. Look out, because Crowder might be becoming the best out of all of them (if he gets his head on a little more consistently).
Yeremiah Bell's injury is bad news. He is really special. A great athlete with an nose for the ball. Sad to see him injured so early (especially because we learned that Tillman is not a starting safety last year).
Conclusions:
Overall, I'd really like to see the offensive and defensive lines step up because they got beat today blocking and tackling, and you are not going to win many games if you don't produce in those areas. We saw more of the same mistakes that have haunted us for years on offense and we saw an entirely new problem on defense which needs to go away quickly. Before today, we had every reason to believe that Porter and Roth replacing Spragan and Carter would mean great things for Taylor and Co. Let's hope that today was the exception and we can get to some quarterbacks and stop the rush in the future.
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For the Redskins game my commentary might be a little thin (note: it actually ended up being quite extensive). I actually traveled out to Washington for the game (nice stadium, the end zones are right on top of the field at FedEx, which creates a nice advantage...also, as smart a crowd as I've ever seen at a football game), so I didn't get to take any notes and didn't get the benefit of replays. However, the big points were pretty clear, so I can hit on that well.
First the game run down:
The offense right off the bat and throughout looked pretty consistently inconsistent. There were glimmers of the astute play calling of Cameron, but it didn't matter because the Dolphins didn't execute consistently. In fact, the offense looked strikingly similar to Dolphins offenses of years past to the naked eye. However, if you looked closer, you could see little strings of successful plays, Trent Green doing some really nice things, and Cameron's knack for exploiting match-ups. Nevertheless, it was the same story, and if the stupid penalties, missed responsibilities, and dropped passes continue to hinder Miami, we are going to see more of the same results.
An interception on the first defensive series was great to see. However, penalties held the Fins back early. An illegal formation negated an 8 yard Ronnie run to start the drive; my old football coach used to always say that there is nothing in the playbook for 1st and 15, and it's true how damaging those penalties really are. A 25 yard penalty on special teams later cost the Fins good field position. A 2nd and 3 became 3rd and 12 because of penalties again, and the Skins went up 3-0 despite being outplayed.
The defense looked good early. It was interesting to see Taylor and Porter as down linemen in the dime package. On offense, the no huddle had some success early. The offensive line was not opening up any holes, but Chambers started to get involved, which was nice to see. It will be interesting to see what type of receiver Chambers is this year because as of now we really don't know. He's never had a really good quarterback, and he's never really solidified himself as a number 1 receiver in the NFL (in fact, his value over replacement player (VORP...or here as DPAR) ratings from footballoutsiders.com show how downright bad he can be... http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2006.php). Hopefully, with Trent Green and Cam Cameron, we'll learn who the real Chris Chambers really is and if he's worth hanging on to.
The time management before halftime was downright unacceptable. However, give credit to Cameron for being gutsy and apparently knowing his team and going for it...it worked, so everybody is happy. More on this later...
On the first drive after halftime, we learned something we already knew. Travis Daniels is not a man to man cornerback in the NFL. He has been great with the Dolphins since he was drafted, and I am a big fan of his, but the fact of the matter is that Dolphins cannot leave him in man without taking a huge risk. It's also worth noting that Randle El is a great athlete, and he proved it on this day. Portis scoring on the 19 yard TD run was a horror to watch, but the scary thing was that it was only the beginning of Miami getting run over this year.
Now, with about 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, the Dolphins had 4th and goal on the Washington 1. Remember that before HALFTIME, when field position is irrelevant, the Dolphins decided to go for a TD with 4 seconds left and succeeded. However, in this situation, Cameron sent Feely on to tie the game. While I do understand that the score becomes more relevant to these decisions as the game nears the 4th quarter, I do not understand how our gutsy, young head coach can make the objectively ill-advised move of going for the TD just before halftime, risking leaving with nothing, and then kick a field goal late in the 3rd quarter when at the very least, we leave the Skins backed up to their own 1. For now, I'll give Cameron the benefit of the doubt in knowing the situation or something that I potentially didn't know, but I hope this type of decision doesn't become a habit in the future.
The one thing that I fear about losing Mare is losing the touchbacks. You can't overstate how important those are.
I didn't see exactly what happened with Taylor's roughness penalty, but he usually doesn't make stupid plays like that without good reason. I stand by him out of loyalty. The one thing that I can't stand by is if he continues to be so quiet in the pass rush. He is a difference maker, and though I might be spoiled by the Taylor of last year, he needs to be the best player on the field for the Dolphins to win games. The one sack was nice, but where was the usual Jason affecting every play for the rest of the game?
The Redskins drive which culminated with them taking a 13-10 lead was almost exclusively on the ground. This is when I started to really get frustrated with the defense. If there is one thing that I can't stand, it is a defense that gets pushed around and can't stop the run even when they know it's coming. It's really disheartening.
The Dolphins next drive was great. It was the type of drive that you usually see teams make against the Dolphins after a big score. They marched down the field, and looked like a real offense...until they got to the 8. Holding, grounding, and it was 2nd and goal from the 28. Field goal. No lead. And our fate was (at least partially) decided by a coin flip.
When the Dolphins got the ball back before OT, and Green made that too-perfect pass to Fred Smoot (nightmares of Fiedler to Tory James in the playoffs a few years ago), I had to question the decision to throw a sideline pass with 28 seconds left. Either be conservative or aggressive with 1 minute left. Please, no more high-risk low-reward plays in that type of situation.
Crazy play to end regulation. I can smile about it because it didn't affect the outcome. Give Taylor credit because right after he knocked the ball down (to Randle El unfortunately), he made the tackle and actually forced a fumble.
I don't want to talk about overtime. I told you how I feel about being run over and powerless, and this overtime was absolutely embarrassing. That type of play makes me sick to my stomach, and it was clear that the Redskins had the Dolphins personnel match-ups figured out and exploited them.
Notes:
Trent Green played a nice game in his first start with the Dolphins. He is a confident and competent leader, and he played the quarterback position with a sence of poise that we haven't seen in Miami since you-know-who.
Ronnie Brown did not see the ball as much as I would've liked, but I don't blame this on him. Throughout all of the criticism he has received for not living up to the hype of a #2 overall pick, he has been a hard working back who has always made the most out of what he's been given. He runs hard, delivers hits, protects the ball, has speed, catches passes, and hits the hole WHEN IT IS THERE. The only problem has been that holes haven't been there for the last few years. So, he gets the unwarranted criticism that he is a dancer. If I had to run behind the Dolphins O-lines the last couple of years, I wouldn't dance. I would run the other direction. In this game, the situational factors of the line not opening anything up and Cameron wanting to test Chatman lead to less carries for Ronnie. We have got to get him the ball, but more importantly (and Cameron knows this), we need to get him the ball in situations where he can be successful. Let's see how this develops over the course of the season.
The O-line needs to get better. Decent pass protection, but no running room. If you want a successful offense, it starts up front. These guys are going to be the key to Cameron running the type of stuff that he would like.
The defensive line looked as bad as it has in quite some time. There was very little pass rush all day, and the way they got run over at the end was flat out terrible. This unit is what dictates the success of the defense. We need to pressure the quarterback and dictate play on this side of the ball, and that didn't happen today.
The backers and secondary were what we thought they were. Zach, Channing, and Joey will do as much as the guys in front of them allow. Look out, because Crowder might be becoming the best out of all of them (if he gets his head on a little more consistently).
Yeremiah Bell's injury is bad news. He is really special. A great athlete with an nose for the ball. Sad to see him injured so early (especially because we learned that Tillman is not a starting safety last year).
Conclusions:
Overall, I'd really like to see the offensive and defensive lines step up because they got beat today blocking and tackling, and you are not going to win many games if you don't produce in those areas. We saw more of the same mistakes that have haunted us for years on offense and we saw an entirely new problem on defense which needs to go away quickly. Before today, we had every reason to believe that Porter and Roth replacing Spragan and Carter would mean great things for Taylor and Co. Let's hope that today was the exception and we can get to some quarterbacks and stop the rush in the future.
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