Note: although this post concentrates mostly on Chambers' value, I really believe the most important aspect of the trade was the ramifications of getting a very valuable 2nd round pick for him, especially for a (dare I say) rebuilding team like the Dolphins.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
So, we traded Chambers and it seems ambivalence ensues, at least for you...here's something that might make you feel a little better.
According to footballoutsiders.com, what I consider to be the best statistical reference site for the NFL, Chambers is a below average starting wide receiver. The way FootballOutsiders works is they measure a player's value over a replacement player, much like the concepts that Moneyball GMs in baseball use.
The two statistics that you will see are DPAR (defense adjusted points above replacement) and DVOA (defense adjusted value over average). Both statistics control for the quality of defense that you play against, and DPAR measures the number of points scored due to plays where this WR caught the ball compared to a replacement-level (backup) WR, while DVOA measures what percentage better a wide receiver is than the average wide receiver in the same situations. DPAR means a wide receiver with more total value. DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play.
It sounds complicated, but you can trust that they are very good measures of how good a receiver is. If you would like to do some research for yourself, they are very thoroughly described here:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dpar
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dvoa
This season, where Chambers is having a pretty solid year (415 yards in 6 games puts him on pace for 1,000), he ranks 56th in the NFL in DPAR and 58th in DVOA among 76 players ranked. You thought he was better than that, didn't you? He is 11.8% worse than the average wide receiver and has only caught 47% of passes thrown his way. Marty Booker, the Dolphins quiet #2 receiver, ranks higher than him in terms of value. Convinced yet?
Well I've got more for you anyway. In 2006, Chambers ranked dead last in the NFL among the 82 players who had at least 50 passes thrown their way during the season. LAST. What's even more embarrassing...it wasn't even close. The #1 receiver, Reggie Wayne, had a DPAR of 46. Marty Booker was pretty high ranking #26 at 16.9. Wes Welker, in his Miami Dolphin glory days, ranked #46 at 9.6. The #81 ranked (2nd to last) receiver in the league, A. Whitted from Oakland, had a DPAR of -8.9. Chambers was at an astounding -19.8 (over 10 points worse than the 2nd worst player!), and he ranked over 33% worse than a mere AVERAGE receiver in the NFL in terms of DVOA. All of this actually prompted FootballOutsiders to write an article
about how he is not a #1 receiver in the NFL (unfortunately, I can't find it in the archives).
No fear, Chambers had a bad year last year with instability at quarterback. Surely in 2005, when he broke 1,000 yards and scored 11 touchdowns, he would get some DPAR/DVOA respect. Guess again my friend. In 2005, Chambers ranked #62 in the league in DPAR, again behind both Welker and Booker (in that order in 2005), and #73 in DVOA, 11.3% worse than an average wide receiver. That's right, if you put an average wide receiver in Chambers place in 2005 (say, Michael Jenkins from Atlanta), he would have had a better year and been more valuable than Chambers. Even in Chambers' career year, he only caught 49% of passes thrown in his direction.
Obviously, no statistic is perfect. However, if you read the description of these stats or even simply take a look at who the top rated receivers in terms of DPAR are (for the sake of concurrent validity), you will see that these are very good statistics. If your natural inclination is to make the argument that quarterbacks and offensive systems have a lot to do with how successful a receiver is, even within the scope of these statistics, then you are right, that's a good argument to make. However, the fact of the matter is that (a) Chambers is so far down on these lists that quarterbacks cannot account for that much variance and (b) Booker and Welker consistently had better DPARs even with the same quarterbacks and offenses.
Combine all of this info with the fact that a second round pick is HUGE in terms of value, and you have a great trade by Mueller and Co. They took advantage of a regime in San Diego with their jobs on the line, therefore willing to mortgage their future. I might've felt ambivalent about letting Chambers go for a 3rd round pick, but a 2nd rounder is a no-brainer. I'll miss Chambers some, and I wish him the best of luck in the future, but this was the right move for the Miami Dolphins.
note: Here are links to the Wide Receiver ranking on footballoutsiders.com
for 2007, 2006, and 2005, respectively:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr.php
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2006.php
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2005.php
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Thursday, October 4, 2007
3 Major Developments
Here are 3 major points to take away from the Dolphins-Cowboys game:
1. It's not Ronnie's fault.
I know a lot of Dolphins fans like to criticize Ronnie Brown's supposed lack of productivity over the early course of his career, and it's especially easy to do this when the Dolphins are losing and he isn't getting the ball. However, Ronnie has shown consistently since he was drafted that he is a good running back in the NFL. When he has holes, he hits them hard, makes defenders pay, and can break some long runs. When he doesn't have holes (which is most of the time), he works as hard as any running back in the league to get every possible yard. Yes he does sometimes hesitate, but more often than not he is trying to set up his blocks and give the line a chance to get something to develop. I believe that Ronnie has been and continues to be a victim of poor blocking in front of him.
In the first half against the Cowboys, Ronnie didn't see one hole. I don't understand how Dolphins fans and media can criticize him for this. He ran hard anyway. To start the second half, Ronnie got one big hole, which he turned into a 12 yard gain, and then he got another big gain when there wasn't even much doing. They went on to score a touchdown that drive, but from then on he didn't see the ball because of 2 factors. The line wasn't opening anything up for the running game, and a couple of turnovers led to the Dolphins having to play catch-up, so they abandoned the run altogether. With all this being the case, how come people are calling for Ronnie's head? I simply don't see how any of this is his fault.
2. The tackling needs to improve.
This was the real killer against the Cowboys, and it needs to improve or else the Dolphins are in for a long season. Tackling killed us against the Redskins, too, and there is simply no reason for it. Tackling is the basis of any defense, the most important thing you can do on that side of the ball (blocking being its counterpart), and the status quo is unacceptable.
There were numerous times I noted to myself during the game when poor tackling or an inability to finish a play cost us big. In the first quarter it cost us, with even Jason Taylor getting involved in the act. There were missed sacks that turned into first downs. There was an instance where Taylor (again) idiotically ripped at the ball ON 3RD DOWN instead of tackling the ball carrier (we were bailed out by a holding). As I mentioned, Marion Barber's ran through several arm tackles on his touchdown run.
I stopped noting most of the missed tackles once the second half rolled around (but who could forget the play where Taylor was in perfect position to nail Romo, but instead was made to look like a fool), but the damage was done in the first half. The Cowboys controlled the ball for 19 minutes as a result of the missed tackles keeping drives alive, and the lack of time of possession for the Dolphins took Ronnie Brown out of the game and forced Trent Green to start forcing things on offense. This is a counter intuitive claim, but I believe the play of the defense was just as responsible as the offense for the turnover problems. Missed tackles led to long drives for the Cowboys, which led to the Dolphins inability develop a rhythm on offense (and the aforementioned problems for Brown and Green) and eventually turnovers. (Note: I know critics of my analysis would say that the turnovers and lack of productivity on offense are what led to the time of possession swing in the first place, but only one of the turnovers was in the first half, and the length of the Cowboys drives are what led to the time of possession swing, not the Dolphins going 3 and out over and over again).
3. The Dolphins defensive philosophy/scheme needs to change.
On defense, there are really two ways you can go about your business. You can be a reactionary defense or you can force the offense to become a reactionary offense. In the JJ/Wanny years, the Dolphins had defensive success with a reactionary defense because they were built for one. The had great, aggressive corners who could make plays on their own, great defensive ends who could get to the passer on their own, and a run defense anchored by Zach Thomas. Whatever the opposition did, the Dolphins could react to it and stop it. Very simple. Very effective.
In the Saban era, the Dolphins defense accomplished great things on defense by being the aggressors and forcing the offense to react to what they were doing. Much like Belichick's defense in New England, Saban would show the offense a different, disguised look on every play, and it would be up to the offense to figure it out. You never knew where the blitz was coming from, and just when you thought your only safe bet was that the blitz was coming, you would have max protect against 8 defenders in coverage. It is easy to see how this type of defense can affect a quarterback and force some bad decisions.
Saban built his defensive personnel to fit this scheme by bringing in a gap-filling nose tackle, a versatile group of linebackers (including drafting Crowder and converting Taylor), and a cover 2 secondary (the safeties are the focus instead of the corners...unfortunately Jason Allen never panned out). He had a lot of success by moving Taylor around and really unleashing the absolute terror that he could be. The Dolphins got to the quarterback, and whenever you can do that, good things happen for the defense.
Saban left, but Capers stayed, so everybody assumed that the defense would stay mostly the same. The Dolphins also brought in Joey Porter, a guy who had a lot of success in this aggressive-style defense in the past, and even though he had his critics, everybody assumed he would at least help Taylor have even more success, a scary proposition considering the year the defensive MVP had. However, somewhere along the line, the Dolphins defense fell back into being reactionary, and the problem is that the Dolphins are no longer build for it.
Instead of getting Taylor and Porter up and moving around, offensive coordinators have been able to get both of them into 3 point stances the majority of the time, causing them to become simple, traditional defensive ends. Predictably, not only have they not been effective, but the Dolphins haven't gotten anywhere near opposing quarterbacks on a consistent basis. Slide the protection towards Taylor and match Porter against a tackle, and they are effectively neutralized. Romo felt no pressure all day, and when a defense built to be the aggressor is forced to play as the reactor, a whole lot of weaknesses show up. The Dolphins no longer have the cover corners they used to, and they only have one player who serves as a true defensive tackle. Take your pick of how you would like to beat them.
All day against the Dolphins, the Cowboys did just that. Marion Barber ran all over the place, hardly ever even slowed down. Romo had a field day, too. He hardly ever felt pressure, giving him time to pick apart the zone. When the Dolphins went man, it was that much easier for him, because with nobody on the Dolphins even close to being a good enough cover man to stay with T.O. (they even tried Renaldo Hill), he was open on every 3rd down. Daniels, bless his soul, is not a man corner in the NFL. They either need to keep him in zone or get him off the field (they opted to move him to safety).
It comes down to this. The Dolphins made a mistake when they decided to ever have Joey Porter play with his hand on the ground. The Redskins exploited it, and now that the Cowboys have too, they need to fix it. However, if the Dolphins concede that they cannot create a pass rush and get to the quarterback, they will lose every game. This personnel group cannot be successful playing as a reactionary defense, but I still have faith that they can be a great defense if they recommit to being the aggressor. The Dolphins defense is facing adversity, and for it to regain its form, it will take the counter intuitive move by Capers and Co. to not try to fix its weaknesses, but instead to put more focus on exploiting its strengths.
1. It's not Ronnie's fault.
I know a lot of Dolphins fans like to criticize Ronnie Brown's supposed lack of productivity over the early course of his career, and it's especially easy to do this when the Dolphins are losing and he isn't getting the ball. However, Ronnie has shown consistently since he was drafted that he is a good running back in the NFL. When he has holes, he hits them hard, makes defenders pay, and can break some long runs. When he doesn't have holes (which is most of the time), he works as hard as any running back in the league to get every possible yard. Yes he does sometimes hesitate, but more often than not he is trying to set up his blocks and give the line a chance to get something to develop. I believe that Ronnie has been and continues to be a victim of poor blocking in front of him.
In the first half against the Cowboys, Ronnie didn't see one hole. I don't understand how Dolphins fans and media can criticize him for this. He ran hard anyway. To start the second half, Ronnie got one big hole, which he turned into a 12 yard gain, and then he got another big gain when there wasn't even much doing. They went on to score a touchdown that drive, but from then on he didn't see the ball because of 2 factors. The line wasn't opening anything up for the running game, and a couple of turnovers led to the Dolphins having to play catch-up, so they abandoned the run altogether. With all this being the case, how come people are calling for Ronnie's head? I simply don't see how any of this is his fault.
2. The tackling needs to improve.
This was the real killer against the Cowboys, and it needs to improve or else the Dolphins are in for a long season. Tackling killed us against the Redskins, too, and there is simply no reason for it. Tackling is the basis of any defense, the most important thing you can do on that side of the ball (blocking being its counterpart), and the status quo is unacceptable.
There were numerous times I noted to myself during the game when poor tackling or an inability to finish a play cost us big. In the first quarter it cost us, with even Jason Taylor getting involved in the act. There were missed sacks that turned into first downs. There was an instance where Taylor (again) idiotically ripped at the ball ON 3RD DOWN instead of tackling the ball carrier (we were bailed out by a holding). As I mentioned, Marion Barber's ran through several arm tackles on his touchdown run.
I stopped noting most of the missed tackles once the second half rolled around (but who could forget the play where Taylor was in perfect position to nail Romo, but instead was made to look like a fool), but the damage was done in the first half. The Cowboys controlled the ball for 19 minutes as a result of the missed tackles keeping drives alive, and the lack of time of possession for the Dolphins took Ronnie Brown out of the game and forced Trent Green to start forcing things on offense. This is a counter intuitive claim, but I believe the play of the defense was just as responsible as the offense for the turnover problems. Missed tackles led to long drives for the Cowboys, which led to the Dolphins inability develop a rhythm on offense (and the aforementioned problems for Brown and Green) and eventually turnovers. (Note: I know critics of my analysis would say that the turnovers and lack of productivity on offense are what led to the time of possession swing in the first place, but only one of the turnovers was in the first half, and the length of the Cowboys drives are what led to the time of possession swing, not the Dolphins going 3 and out over and over again).
3. The Dolphins defensive philosophy/scheme needs to change.
On defense, there are really two ways you can go about your business. You can be a reactionary defense or you can force the offense to become a reactionary offense. In the JJ/Wanny years, the Dolphins had defensive success with a reactionary defense because they were built for one. The had great, aggressive corners who could make plays on their own, great defensive ends who could get to the passer on their own, and a run defense anchored by Zach Thomas. Whatever the opposition did, the Dolphins could react to it and stop it. Very simple. Very effective.
In the Saban era, the Dolphins defense accomplished great things on defense by being the aggressors and forcing the offense to react to what they were doing. Much like Belichick's defense in New England, Saban would show the offense a different, disguised look on every play, and it would be up to the offense to figure it out. You never knew where the blitz was coming from, and just when you thought your only safe bet was that the blitz was coming, you would have max protect against 8 defenders in coverage. It is easy to see how this type of defense can affect a quarterback and force some bad decisions.
Saban built his defensive personnel to fit this scheme by bringing in a gap-filling nose tackle, a versatile group of linebackers (including drafting Crowder and converting Taylor), and a cover 2 secondary (the safeties are the focus instead of the corners...unfortunately Jason Allen never panned out). He had a lot of success by moving Taylor around and really unleashing the absolute terror that he could be. The Dolphins got to the quarterback, and whenever you can do that, good things happen for the defense.
Saban left, but Capers stayed, so everybody assumed that the defense would stay mostly the same. The Dolphins also brought in Joey Porter, a guy who had a lot of success in this aggressive-style defense in the past, and even though he had his critics, everybody assumed he would at least help Taylor have even more success, a scary proposition considering the year the defensive MVP had. However, somewhere along the line, the Dolphins defense fell back into being reactionary, and the problem is that the Dolphins are no longer build for it.
Instead of getting Taylor and Porter up and moving around, offensive coordinators have been able to get both of them into 3 point stances the majority of the time, causing them to become simple, traditional defensive ends. Predictably, not only have they not been effective, but the Dolphins haven't gotten anywhere near opposing quarterbacks on a consistent basis. Slide the protection towards Taylor and match Porter against a tackle, and they are effectively neutralized. Romo felt no pressure all day, and when a defense built to be the aggressor is forced to play as the reactor, a whole lot of weaknesses show up. The Dolphins no longer have the cover corners they used to, and they only have one player who serves as a true defensive tackle. Take your pick of how you would like to beat them.
All day against the Dolphins, the Cowboys did just that. Marion Barber ran all over the place, hardly ever even slowed down. Romo had a field day, too. He hardly ever felt pressure, giving him time to pick apart the zone. When the Dolphins went man, it was that much easier for him, because with nobody on the Dolphins even close to being a good enough cover man to stay with T.O. (they even tried Renaldo Hill), he was open on every 3rd down. Daniels, bless his soul, is not a man corner in the NFL. They either need to keep him in zone or get him off the field (they opted to move him to safety).
It comes down to this. The Dolphins made a mistake when they decided to ever have Joey Porter play with his hand on the ground. The Redskins exploited it, and now that the Cowboys have too, they need to fix it. However, if the Dolphins concede that they cannot create a pass rush and get to the quarterback, they will lose every game. This personnel group cannot be successful playing as a reactionary defense, but I still have faith that they can be a great defense if they recommit to being the aggressor. The Dolphins defense is facing adversity, and for it to regain its form, it will take the counter intuitive move by Capers and Co. to not try to fix its weaknesses, but instead to put more focus on exploiting its strengths.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Dolphins-Cowboys Overview
For the Cowboys game I am going to start with a relatively brief overview of what went on, and then move on to some themes and story lines in my next post. Remember, I'm still just experimenting with different formats, so bear with me.
The Dolphins started the game pretty well actually, and believe it or not it was Trent Green who was leading them early. The line started poorly, not opening up any holes for Ronnie. 2 fifteen yard penalties hurt the Dolphins, but after the first quarter the score was 3-3. Even though it didn't work, I liked the decision to call a time out to make the Cowboys kick off of the dirt.
The Dolphins missed a lot of tackles and a few opportunities for turnovers in the 2nd quarter. The pass rush was also nonexistent, and nobody seemed to want to cover T.O. on 3rd downs. Marion Barber ran through a couple of arm tackles (how apropos) to open up a 10-3 lead for the 'Boys.
Green continued to carry the Dolphins offense squarely on his shoulders en route to a field goal before halftime, 10-6. There seemed to be a lot of openings when the Dolphins went to the hurry up. However, Green missed high on a few throws, a problem which would haunt him in the second half.
Although the score was only 10-6 at halftime, the game was well on its way to being lost. The line could not open up any holes for Ronnie, and the receivers were not getting open with any degree of consistency. It was clear that Trent was going to have to do quite a bit on his own if the Dolphins were going to stay in the game. On defense, although only 10 points were allowed, they allowed the Cowboys to hold the ball for 19 minutes. They weren't tackling and there was no pass rush. To be blunt, they were getting beaten.
The first drive of the second half was a thing of beauty. The line got a good push, and Ronnie always seems to make the best out of any holes he's given. Play action opened up, and Chambers made a great catch. The real catalyst for Miami on the drive was Green, who went 4-4 if my memory serves me right, including a beautiful touchdown to Booker. I wrote a note to myself that said simply, "Trent Green is a QB." 13-10 Dolphins.
When all the momentum seemed to be in Miami's favor, a TERRIBLE penalty forced the Dolphins to re-kick. The penalty ended up costing the Dolphins 55 yards, and I'm pretty sure the culprit was Jason Allen, everybody's favorite. Momentum: Cowboys. A couple of plays later, Travis Daniels had an atrocious pass interference penalty, leading to a Cowboys touchdown and the lead for good. 17-13 Cowboys.
The next 2 Dolphins drives ended with physical (more on the importance of this distinction later) mistakes by Trent Green. He overthrew Chambers by a long shot for a pick, and later he fumbled a snap. The Cowboys converted field goals after both of these, 23-13. These are the types of mistakes which will happen to all quarterbacks from time to time, but unfortunately the Cowboys are too good and Green had to do too much to overcome them, and he never recovered.
The defense bended without breaking for a while, but throughout the rest of the game they continued with poor tackling, poor pass rush, allowing long drives, and not covering anybody on 3rd down. The end result was 37 points allowed.
The offense and particularly Trent Green showed today that it could play well when executing. However, they are not good enough yet to play from behind, and even though Green is more of a quarterback than the Dolphins have seen in a while, he is not Peyton Manning or Tom Brady and cannot win games on his own, as he was forced to try to today. I will elaborate more on him later, because I believe his 4 interceptions today are a bit misleading when analyzing how well he played.
The Dolphins started the game pretty well actually, and believe it or not it was Trent Green who was leading them early. The line started poorly, not opening up any holes for Ronnie. 2 fifteen yard penalties hurt the Dolphins, but after the first quarter the score was 3-3. Even though it didn't work, I liked the decision to call a time out to make the Cowboys kick off of the dirt.
The Dolphins missed a lot of tackles and a few opportunities for turnovers in the 2nd quarter. The pass rush was also nonexistent, and nobody seemed to want to cover T.O. on 3rd downs. Marion Barber ran through a couple of arm tackles (how apropos) to open up a 10-3 lead for the 'Boys.
Green continued to carry the Dolphins offense squarely on his shoulders en route to a field goal before halftime, 10-6. There seemed to be a lot of openings when the Dolphins went to the hurry up. However, Green missed high on a few throws, a problem which would haunt him in the second half.
Although the score was only 10-6 at halftime, the game was well on its way to being lost. The line could not open up any holes for Ronnie, and the receivers were not getting open with any degree of consistency. It was clear that Trent was going to have to do quite a bit on his own if the Dolphins were going to stay in the game. On defense, although only 10 points were allowed, they allowed the Cowboys to hold the ball for 19 minutes. They weren't tackling and there was no pass rush. To be blunt, they were getting beaten.
The first drive of the second half was a thing of beauty. The line got a good push, and Ronnie always seems to make the best out of any holes he's given. Play action opened up, and Chambers made a great catch. The real catalyst for Miami on the drive was Green, who went 4-4 if my memory serves me right, including a beautiful touchdown to Booker. I wrote a note to myself that said simply, "Trent Green is a QB." 13-10 Dolphins.
When all the momentum seemed to be in Miami's favor, a TERRIBLE penalty forced the Dolphins to re-kick. The penalty ended up costing the Dolphins 55 yards, and I'm pretty sure the culprit was Jason Allen, everybody's favorite. Momentum: Cowboys. A couple of plays later, Travis Daniels had an atrocious pass interference penalty, leading to a Cowboys touchdown and the lead for good. 17-13 Cowboys.
The next 2 Dolphins drives ended with physical (more on the importance of this distinction later) mistakes by Trent Green. He overthrew Chambers by a long shot for a pick, and later he fumbled a snap. The Cowboys converted field goals after both of these, 23-13. These are the types of mistakes which will happen to all quarterbacks from time to time, but unfortunately the Cowboys are too good and Green had to do too much to overcome them, and he never recovered.
The defense bended without breaking for a while, but throughout the rest of the game they continued with poor tackling, poor pass rush, allowing long drives, and not covering anybody on 3rd down. The end result was 37 points allowed.
The offense and particularly Trent Green showed today that it could play well when executing. However, they are not good enough yet to play from behind, and even though Green is more of a quarterback than the Dolphins have seen in a while, he is not Peyton Manning or Tom Brady and cannot win games on his own, as he was forced to try to today. I will elaborate more on him later, because I believe his 4 interceptions today are a bit misleading when analyzing how well he played.
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