With their late round picks, the Dolphins addressed the tight end position, depth at offensive tackle, and added a safety. None of these moves were surprises. Cheap, young players, but little more, was called upon to fill these positions.
However, the Dolphins made important decisions on the future of the linebacker and nose tackles positions by what they didn't do.
Specifically, the Dolphins didn't spend a high round draft pick on a pass-rushing outside linebacker and didn't draft a nose tackle to groom into the starting role when Jason Ferguson runs out of gas. The only thing they did do was draft JD Folsom, a seventh round Weber State inside linebacker project. The moves the Dolphins didn't make tell us a lot and will have great ramifications on the team now and into the future.
At nose tackle, I don't take the Dolphins not drafting anybody as a definite sign that they are happy with Paul Soliai to eventually take over for Jason Ferguson. I think they are happy enough with him that they felt confident leaving him as the #2 guy for another year, developing him in the process, but I don't think they are set on him as the answer.
The most likely reason the Dolphins passed on a nose is because there aren't many great noses available. People just don't come that big very often, so when there is a big body like that who is good enough to consistently eat up two gaps, they are hard to miss. The Dolphins had greater needs to take care of in the early rounds, and my best bet is that as opposed to drafting somebody mediocre now, they plan on drafting a first round nose in the next year or two, somebody who can come in and star(t) right away once Jason Ferguson is done. I think this is sound logic on the part of the Dolphins.
As for the lack of an outside linebacker, it takes a closer look at what the Dolphins currently have to get an idea of what's going on. On one side, they have Joey Porter, who figures to hold down the Will job for another couple of years. On the other, Matt Roth is a strong first and second down player, but the Dolphins didn't have good production from Charlie Anderson on third downs last year. So, that leaves the Dolphins looking for somebody to play on third downs and eventually succeed Joey Porter as the Will.
Anderson will certainly be in the mix for that role, but I believe that Cameron Wake will be given every opportunity to show off his considerable talent in that position. If you look at Wake as a sort of high round draft pick equivalent, it makes a lot of sense that the Dolphins felt less of a need at outside linebacker than they did at wide receiver or corner. You can never have too many pass rushers, but I think the Dolphins are putting their stock in Wake for a reason.
Meanwhile, the fact that the Dolphins didn't draft a linebacker can only be a positive sign for those hoping to see Jason Taylor in aqua and orange again. For the right price, bringing JT back makes a lot of sense, and I think we will find out in the coming days whether or not Parcells, Ireland, and Sparano agree. With him in the mix, the Dolphins pass rush could be downright scary once again.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Dolphins Draft Recap - Pat White/Receivers
Initially, when the Dolphins drafted Pat White, I had figured that besides his role in the Wildcat, he would be used as a receiver, at least for the time being. However, with the Dolphins drafting both Patrick Turner in the third round and Brian Hartline in the fourth, it seemed to indicate that the Dolphins had a different role for White in mind.
On Monday, it was confirmed when the Dolphins dropped John Beck. Pat White, besides being the Wildcat back, will be the Dolphins' third quarterback.
From the quarterback situation's standpoint, this makes a lot of sense. As I called for the Dolphins to do in my pre-draft positional breakdown, the Dolphins dropped John Beck and replaced him since they were convinced he wasn't going to work out here (for his sake, let's hope that Cam Cameron didn't permanently break him). They added somebody with more upside (and unique roster flexibility) to replace him, and the quarterback position is even stronger today than it was a week ago today.
Moreover, as for the receivers, the Dolphins got two players who seem to fit in very well and who they obviously really like. Turner is a big red-zone target, they type of player Parcells has coveted, and Hartline is a polished, versitile Ohio State receiver who will also contribute on special teams.
Interestingly, Turner and Hartline, along with Ginn, Camarillo, and Bess, add up to five receivers who are very likely to make the Dolphins final roster. At the most, I could see them keeping only one more, which puts the jobs of Ernest Wilford and Brandon London in jeopardy. Turner figures to fill the niche that Wilford never did, being the big touchdown machine, so I'd put good money on a quick exit for Ernest from the roster. Hartline, likewise, fills London's special teams role, but I wouldn't be so sure that he is on his way out. You can never have too many good special teamers, and London established himself as a valuable member of the team last year. Still, six receivers is a lot to carry.
All side-chatter aside, the most important thing is that the Dolphins added some playmakers. Pat White, from the Wildcat role, has a chance to further revolutionize the league. With him at the helm, the Dolphins are going to take a shot at incorportating a legitimate spread scheme into their NFL offense. At wide receiver, the hope is that one of Hartline and Turner becomes a game-changing player, and suddenly depth at the position is a strength. Quarterback and wide receiver are both sufficiently upgraded, and it will be interesting to see how the rookies fare in their first season.
On Monday, it was confirmed when the Dolphins dropped John Beck. Pat White, besides being the Wildcat back, will be the Dolphins' third quarterback.
From the quarterback situation's standpoint, this makes a lot of sense. As I called for the Dolphins to do in my pre-draft positional breakdown, the Dolphins dropped John Beck and replaced him since they were convinced he wasn't going to work out here (for his sake, let's hope that Cam Cameron didn't permanently break him). They added somebody with more upside (and unique roster flexibility) to replace him, and the quarterback position is even stronger today than it was a week ago today.
Moreover, as for the receivers, the Dolphins got two players who seem to fit in very well and who they obviously really like. Turner is a big red-zone target, they type of player Parcells has coveted, and Hartline is a polished, versitile Ohio State receiver who will also contribute on special teams.
Interestingly, Turner and Hartline, along with Ginn, Camarillo, and Bess, add up to five receivers who are very likely to make the Dolphins final roster. At the most, I could see them keeping only one more, which puts the jobs of Ernest Wilford and Brandon London in jeopardy. Turner figures to fill the niche that Wilford never did, being the big touchdown machine, so I'd put good money on a quick exit for Ernest from the roster. Hartline, likewise, fills London's special teams role, but I wouldn't be so sure that he is on his way out. You can never have too many good special teamers, and London established himself as a valuable member of the team last year. Still, six receivers is a lot to carry.
All side-chatter aside, the most important thing is that the Dolphins added some playmakers. Pat White, from the Wildcat role, has a chance to further revolutionize the league. With him at the helm, the Dolphins are going to take a shot at incorportating a legitimate spread scheme into their NFL offense. At wide receiver, the hope is that one of Hartline and Turner becomes a game-changing player, and suddenly depth at the position is a strength. Quarterback and wide receiver are both sufficiently upgraded, and it will be interesting to see how the rookies fare in their first season.
Dolphins Draft Recap - Cornerbacks
Though I believe that trying to grade drafts immediately is an exercise in futility, I do think it's worthwhile to take a close look at who the Dolphins picked to try to make sense of where the team stands and what the front office was trying to do.
In the first round, as I said Saturday, there was no surprise. The Dolphins greatest position of need was corner, and they picked up their likely starter opposite Will Allen in Vontae Davis. Davis, the brother of Niners TE Vernon, is physical and talented, and though inconsistent at times, he was considered the best pure corner in the draft.
While we're on the topic of corners, though, there was a mild surprise when the Dolphins decided to go with another one before the end of the first day. With their third pick in the draft, the Dolphins traded down to the bottom of round two and took Utah cornerback Sean Smith. At 6'3", Smith is a big, fast, athletic, and durable former receiver.
What does the selection of Smith mean for the Dolphins? It really confirms just how great a position of need corner was for the trifecta heading into the draft. With Andre Goodman gone, Will Allen having only one year left, and Jason Allen continuing to subsist as a giant question mark, Eric Green was brought in this offseason as a free agent, but thankfully Parcells and company don't have any delusions about what he brings to the table.
On my depth chart, I am pencilling in Davis opposite Allen in the starting lineup this season. Behind them, Green and Smith provide the Dolphins with important talent for when opponents line up multiple wide receivers. Additionally, as we look towards the future, the Dolphins have now positioned themselves with a healthy secondary for years to come. The Dolphins will likely decline to resign Will Allen to an expensive contract next offseason, but Davis, Smith, and Green provide a young and talented nucleus that should serve Miami for several years down the road.
In the first round, as I said Saturday, there was no surprise. The Dolphins greatest position of need was corner, and they picked up their likely starter opposite Will Allen in Vontae Davis. Davis, the brother of Niners TE Vernon, is physical and talented, and though inconsistent at times, he was considered the best pure corner in the draft.
While we're on the topic of corners, though, there was a mild surprise when the Dolphins decided to go with another one before the end of the first day. With their third pick in the draft, the Dolphins traded down to the bottom of round two and took Utah cornerback Sean Smith. At 6'3", Smith is a big, fast, athletic, and durable former receiver.
What does the selection of Smith mean for the Dolphins? It really confirms just how great a position of need corner was for the trifecta heading into the draft. With Andre Goodman gone, Will Allen having only one year left, and Jason Allen continuing to subsist as a giant question mark, Eric Green was brought in this offseason as a free agent, but thankfully Parcells and company don't have any delusions about what he brings to the table.
On my depth chart, I am pencilling in Davis opposite Allen in the starting lineup this season. Behind them, Green and Smith provide the Dolphins with important talent for when opponents line up multiple wide receivers. Additionally, as we look towards the future, the Dolphins have now positioned themselves with a healthy secondary for years to come. The Dolphins will likely decline to resign Will Allen to an expensive contract next offseason, but Davis, Smith, and Green provide a young and talented nucleus that should serve Miami for several years down the road.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Dolphins Draft Pat White!
With the first of the Dolphins two second round selections, with the pick acquired in last year's Jason Taylor trade, the Miami Dolphins chose Pat White from West Virginia.
Personally, I could not have been more excited on draft day.
I considered in my pre-draft positional overviews including a section on the "Wildcat" position. I decided against it, figuring that if in the unlikely scenario that something came up, I could just write about it as it happened. Here it is:
The Dolphins ran the Wildcat with great success last year, but by the end of the season, teams had found a way to bottle it up pretty effectively. The reason for this was that they could commit extra defenders to the run, since Ronnie Brown did not present a great passing threat. So a way to upgrade the offense would be finding somebody who presents a running option, but also could keep defenses honest with his arm. The Dolphins got the only guy in the draft who could do that today in Pat White.
Pat White, for those of you who are less than familiar, started 40 games for West Virginia over his four seasons there, and brought football success to the Mountaineers in a way that they had never seen before. A steady passer with blazing speed, he ran the spread offense to perfection as he was the first quarterback in FBS (Division 1) history to win four bowl games as a starter. Still, Pat White was considered a tweener in the eyes of NFL scouts, without a true quarterback skill set, so his draft status was relatively uncertain. ESPN, for example, to this day lists him as a QB/WR, truly in the Kordell Stewart mold.
As the story goes, at the end of his senior season, White was told that he should approach NFL workouts as a wide receiver. He was told that his skills did not project to becoming an NFL quarterback. So, he did the only logical thing, and impressed Senior Bowl scouts all week long with his arm before winning the game's MVP award at quarterback.
Now, make no mistakes. I have no false hope that White will be the Miami Dolphins quarterback of the future. Right now that distinction belongs to Chad Henne, maybe John Beck. However, he is a great fit for a football team looking to build and take themselves over the top.
I believe the Dolphins will use him the only way they can. He will join their receiving corps and compete for playing time. He has a lot to learn to develop into an NFL receiver (although I've always found that quarterbacks are the ones who end up having the best hands...and they do have certain mental advantages in learning how to become an effective receiver). However, he will also present an amazing X-factor that can't be understated.
With him on the team, the Dolphins figure to up the use of the Wildcat formation to about 10-12 plays per game. I suspect that during most of those, White will play the Wildcat position (the deep back who receives the snap). With him in that role, not only will defenses be forced to play the pass much more honestly, but it enables new mixes of players in different roles, including the possibility of Ronnie Brown in the motion-back role. Likewise, in situations where Ronnie Brown takes snaps, you can move White all over the field to give defenses headaches. There becomes a limitless amount of moving parts that Dan Henning can play with to give defenses headaches, something which he has already proved more than effective at.
Moreover, out of the base, I believe that White as a wideout might present an even greater upside than a first round wide receiver might have. Besides his great speed, he can bring new things to your offense, a la Antwan Randle El. He will always have to be accounted for when he is on the field, and suddenly the Dolphins have great balance in their receiving corps between the explosive Ginn and White and the efficient Camarillo and Bess. As I pointed out before, you might be surprised at how smooth the quarterback to receiver transition can be.
The Dolphins got a gamer today. At the very least, he will help take the Wildcat to a new level and give defensive coordinators all over the league headaches. He also adds a much needed jolt of explosivity to the receiving unit, not to mention that the act of passing on a receiver in the first round should be interpreted as a vote of confidence for Ted Ginn by the trifecta. Additionally, my hope is that a year down the road, White can enable the Dolphins to free up a roster spot by only keeping two true quarterbacks on the roster, a luxury which shouldn't be understated.
White brings all kinds of positives to the table, and is one of the most exciting draft picks by the Dolphins in recent memory. He is a football guy and a gamer who did nothing but win at West Virginia. I am excited to welcome him to the Miami Dolphins.
Personally, I could not have been more excited on draft day.
I considered in my pre-draft positional overviews including a section on the "Wildcat" position. I decided against it, figuring that if in the unlikely scenario that something came up, I could just write about it as it happened. Here it is:
The Dolphins ran the Wildcat with great success last year, but by the end of the season, teams had found a way to bottle it up pretty effectively. The reason for this was that they could commit extra defenders to the run, since Ronnie Brown did not present a great passing threat. So a way to upgrade the offense would be finding somebody who presents a running option, but also could keep defenses honest with his arm. The Dolphins got the only guy in the draft who could do that today in Pat White.
Pat White, for those of you who are less than familiar, started 40 games for West Virginia over his four seasons there, and brought football success to the Mountaineers in a way that they had never seen before. A steady passer with blazing speed, he ran the spread offense to perfection as he was the first quarterback in FBS (Division 1) history to win four bowl games as a starter. Still, Pat White was considered a tweener in the eyes of NFL scouts, without a true quarterback skill set, so his draft status was relatively uncertain. ESPN, for example, to this day lists him as a QB/WR, truly in the Kordell Stewart mold.
As the story goes, at the end of his senior season, White was told that he should approach NFL workouts as a wide receiver. He was told that his skills did not project to becoming an NFL quarterback. So, he did the only logical thing, and impressed Senior Bowl scouts all week long with his arm before winning the game's MVP award at quarterback.
Now, make no mistakes. I have no false hope that White will be the Miami Dolphins quarterback of the future. Right now that distinction belongs to Chad Henne, maybe John Beck. However, he is a great fit for a football team looking to build and take themselves over the top.
I believe the Dolphins will use him the only way they can. He will join their receiving corps and compete for playing time. He has a lot to learn to develop into an NFL receiver (although I've always found that quarterbacks are the ones who end up having the best hands...and they do have certain mental advantages in learning how to become an effective receiver). However, he will also present an amazing X-factor that can't be understated.
With him on the team, the Dolphins figure to up the use of the Wildcat formation to about 10-12 plays per game. I suspect that during most of those, White will play the Wildcat position (the deep back who receives the snap). With him in that role, not only will defenses be forced to play the pass much more honestly, but it enables new mixes of players in different roles, including the possibility of Ronnie Brown in the motion-back role. Likewise, in situations where Ronnie Brown takes snaps, you can move White all over the field to give defenses headaches. There becomes a limitless amount of moving parts that Dan Henning can play with to give defenses headaches, something which he has already proved more than effective at.
Moreover, out of the base, I believe that White as a wideout might present an even greater upside than a first round wide receiver might have. Besides his great speed, he can bring new things to your offense, a la Antwan Randle El. He will always have to be accounted for when he is on the field, and suddenly the Dolphins have great balance in their receiving corps between the explosive Ginn and White and the efficient Camarillo and Bess. As I pointed out before, you might be surprised at how smooth the quarterback to receiver transition can be.
The Dolphins got a gamer today. At the very least, he will help take the Wildcat to a new level and give defensive coordinators all over the league headaches. He also adds a much needed jolt of explosivity to the receiving unit, not to mention that the act of passing on a receiver in the first round should be interpreted as a vote of confidence for Ted Ginn by the trifecta. Additionally, my hope is that a year down the road, White can enable the Dolphins to free up a roster spot by only keeping two true quarterbacks on the roster, a luxury which shouldn't be understated.
White brings all kinds of positives to the table, and is one of the most exciting draft picks by the Dolphins in recent memory. He is a football guy and a gamer who did nothing but win at West Virginia. I am excited to welcome him to the Miami Dolphins.
First Round Tidbits
My thoughts upon the completion of a first round filled with quality players, if few stars:
-Matthew Stafford's huge contract will likely be the biggest rookie contract that we will see for quite some time. With the new collective bargaining agreement being negotiated, I don't think teams will be willing to pay such astronomical figures to top 10 picks anymore. It's a big risk for the Lions, and I really hope for their sake that it works out.
-The Jets took care of what they needed by moving up and drafting Mark Sanchez. Interestingly, because of the aforementioned astronomical figures being payed to high draft picks, especially quarterbacks, the Jets didn't have to pay a huge price to move up. They gave up only one other draft pick, their 2nd rounder this year, and three players on their roster. It works out for Mangini, because he gets his guys, but the real biggest price for the Jets will be whatever contract they end up giving to Sanchez. I would have to expect it to total well over $50 million.
-The three big tackles went in the first eight picks. These are smart, low risk, safer picks for teams who are rediscovering the supreme importance of tackles in the NFL.
-Darrius Heyward-Bey is an incredible physical talent, and he has a huge upside in the NFL. That said, Really Oakland?? Really??
-All of the picks from #9-#15 were smart, great value picks, in my opinion. All of those teams got good players who will come in and help win games.
-The Josh Freeman pick by Tampa Bay, on the other hand, seems like a huge reach at #17. Again, the NFL draft is largely a crapshoot, so nobody really knows, but he seems like just another quarterback at that same, insufficient talent-level for the Bucs. I think there are other ways they could have helped their team. The only thing I will says is that Tampa Bay will pay him a small fraction of what Detroit and the Jets will be paying their guys, a very important consideration in the dollars and sense salary cap NFL.
-From #19 through #26, I think you again saw some really good value picks. I pray that Detroit does something to help themselves out up front, but Pettigrew is a great value, a complete, polished player, and will be Stafford's best friend. Alex Mack, likewise, is one of the players I was highest on in the draft. Look no further than Kevin Mawae for an example of what a cerebral and tough center can mean to your line. Additionally, Percy Harvin makes a lot of sense with the Minnesota Vikings. He will bring a new dimension to their offense, and their Wildcat game with him and AD could be scary. Excellent moves throughout, and with Cushing and Raji, the Green Bay Packers defense could get downright scary.
-Finally, I was surprised to see Hakeem Nicks last so long, because I have him ranked right up there with Heyward-Bey for receivers, but he was a nice pick for the Giants. He will really fill the Plaxico role very well, and if he matures, he could become an elite receiver in the NFL.
-Matthew Stafford's huge contract will likely be the biggest rookie contract that we will see for quite some time. With the new collective bargaining agreement being negotiated, I don't think teams will be willing to pay such astronomical figures to top 10 picks anymore. It's a big risk for the Lions, and I really hope for their sake that it works out.
-The Jets took care of what they needed by moving up and drafting Mark Sanchez. Interestingly, because of the aforementioned astronomical figures being payed to high draft picks, especially quarterbacks, the Jets didn't have to pay a huge price to move up. They gave up only one other draft pick, their 2nd rounder this year, and three players on their roster. It works out for Mangini, because he gets his guys, but the real biggest price for the Jets will be whatever contract they end up giving to Sanchez. I would have to expect it to total well over $50 million.
-The three big tackles went in the first eight picks. These are smart, low risk, safer picks for teams who are rediscovering the supreme importance of tackles in the NFL.
-Darrius Heyward-Bey is an incredible physical talent, and he has a huge upside in the NFL. That said, Really Oakland?? Really??
-All of the picks from #9-#15 were smart, great value picks, in my opinion. All of those teams got good players who will come in and help win games.
-The Josh Freeman pick by Tampa Bay, on the other hand, seems like a huge reach at #17. Again, the NFL draft is largely a crapshoot, so nobody really knows, but he seems like just another quarterback at that same, insufficient talent-level for the Bucs. I think there are other ways they could have helped their team. The only thing I will says is that Tampa Bay will pay him a small fraction of what Detroit and the Jets will be paying their guys, a very important consideration in the dollars and sense salary cap NFL.
-From #19 through #26, I think you again saw some really good value picks. I pray that Detroit does something to help themselves out up front, but Pettigrew is a great value, a complete, polished player, and will be Stafford's best friend. Alex Mack, likewise, is one of the players I was highest on in the draft. Look no further than Kevin Mawae for an example of what a cerebral and tough center can mean to your line. Additionally, Percy Harvin makes a lot of sense with the Minnesota Vikings. He will bring a new dimension to their offense, and their Wildcat game with him and AD could be scary. Excellent moves throughout, and with Cushing and Raji, the Green Bay Packers defense could get downright scary.
-Finally, I was surprised to see Hakeem Nicks last so long, because I have him ranked right up there with Heyward-Bey for receivers, but he was a nice pick for the Giants. He will really fill the Plaxico role very well, and if he matures, he could become an elite receiver in the NFL.
Dolphins Draft Vontae Davis
Sitting at #25, the Dolphins had plenty of options. At wide receiver, Hakeem Nicks of North Carolina was still on the board and at linebacker Clay Matthews was still available, but the Dolphins went with their greatest position of need, and went with Vontae Davis, the corner from Illinois.
My snap judgment is that this was a very good pick, and probably a no-brainer for the Dolphins. Vontae Davis was the best pure cornerback available in the draft, and a great value where the Fins got him. Vernon's younger brother projects to start from day one with Miami, and he completes a very good-looking secondary. Even though he certainly fills a huge need, I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't the highest ranked player overall left on the Dolphins board.
Look for the Dolphins to go after a wideout and a linebacker before the day is over. I also wouldn't count out a nose tackle if Parcells has somebody who he likes.
My snap judgment is that this was a very good pick, and probably a no-brainer for the Dolphins. Vontae Davis was the best pure cornerback available in the draft, and a great value where the Fins got him. Vernon's younger brother projects to start from day one with Miami, and he completes a very good-looking secondary. Even though he certainly fills a huge need, I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't the highest ranked player overall left on the Dolphins board.
Look for the Dolphins to go after a wideout and a linebacker before the day is over. I also wouldn't count out a nose tackle if Parcells has somebody who he likes.
Friday, April 24, 2009
The Offensive Line Situation
Last season, the Dolphins biggest change outside of Chad Pennington might have been the reliability of the offensive line. While they didn't dominate, they were pushovers no more. The team ranked 12th in the NFL in both pass and run blocking according to Football Outsiders, and though they certainly improved throughout the year, 2008 was merely phase one. Sparano wants to keep building up front, as this year was proof that there are lots of talented skill players in this league, but you need big guys to make them look good.
As far as offseason activity goes, there was plenty of it along the offensive line. First of all, the coaching change from Maser to DeGuglielmo can only be interpreted as a positive change. Sparano is obviously an offensive line guy, and DeGuglielmo is somebody who he knows very well. The line will definitely be taught exactly how Sparano likes.
As far as the players go, last year Jake Long stepped into the left tackle position and found himself in Hawaii in February. Likewise, Justin Smiley was the big free agent prize last year, and he had himself a solid season until it was shortened by injury. Those two will be back, so the left side of the line should be stable.
On the other side, there was much more uncertainty. The biggest question up front was whether Vernon Carey would be back, and Bill Parcells made sure he got his guy by paying him. Carey got 6 years and $42 million, including $14 million guaranteed. While this was a high price, this is probably what the market would've demanded, and the trifecta wanted to make sure they got their guy. Now the Dolphins have bookends at the tackles for the next five years, so you can understand the willingness to spend a bit.
Meanwhile, at right guard, the Dolphins rotated multiple players in after promising preseason rookie starter Donald Thomas went down in Week 1. However, this year the Dolphins are excited to have the mamoth back to see what he can do over the course of a season. The likes of Andy Alleman and Ike Ndukwe remain providing interior depth.
Finally, despite Samson Satele starting his first two years at center, the Dolphins really weren't happy with his play. Specifically, he did not carry the size that Parcells and company like to see up front. So, they went in search of an upgrade this offseason.
Jason Brown of the Ravens was the consensus best center available in free agency, but he was snatched up by the Rams for 5 years and $37.5 million, more than the Dolphins were willing to pay. So, the Dolphins ended up with Jake Grove, a 29-year-old rescued from Oakland. They piad him $29 million over 5 years, and if that doesn't seem like much less, consider that Miami is paying him $14m in guarantees, as opposed to $24m with Brown.
I must say, if the Dolphins were weary of giving that much money to Brown (which confuses me to begin with, because he has been a better player than Carey, $42m, to this point in his career), I would have rather they went with a cheaper option or the draft. Matt Birk, for example, who is more than capable of leading an offensive line, went for only $12 million over 3 years. I understand that he is older, but at some point value comes with age. Also, I don't know much about Grove, so I would like to refrain from passing judgement, but the reviews of him seem to be mixed at best, a 2nd round pick who never materialized into something special. We will have to wait and see...
As far as the draft goes, don't expect the Dolphins to draft up front early. I would've very much liked to see them go with centers Alex Mack or Max Unger in the first round, both of whom could step into an NFL lineup and start, but with Grove's 29 milli in the equation, this doesn't seem so likely.
Joe Berger was added to bring depth to the interior, so I wouldn't expect the Dolphins to draft anyone there later either. The only real draft need on the line is some depth at tackle behind Long and Carey, so look for the Dolphins to spend at least one late round flier there, maybe two.
The bottom line is that the line is set for years to come. I pray that Jake Grove can exceed expectations, because if he does the Miami Dolphins will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come.
As far as offseason activity goes, there was plenty of it along the offensive line. First of all, the coaching change from Maser to DeGuglielmo can only be interpreted as a positive change. Sparano is obviously an offensive line guy, and DeGuglielmo is somebody who he knows very well. The line will definitely be taught exactly how Sparano likes.
As far as the players go, last year Jake Long stepped into the left tackle position and found himself in Hawaii in February. Likewise, Justin Smiley was the big free agent prize last year, and he had himself a solid season until it was shortened by injury. Those two will be back, so the left side of the line should be stable.
On the other side, there was much more uncertainty. The biggest question up front was whether Vernon Carey would be back, and Bill Parcells made sure he got his guy by paying him. Carey got 6 years and $42 million, including $14 million guaranteed. While this was a high price, this is probably what the market would've demanded, and the trifecta wanted to make sure they got their guy. Now the Dolphins have bookends at the tackles for the next five years, so you can understand the willingness to spend a bit.
Meanwhile, at right guard, the Dolphins rotated multiple players in after promising preseason rookie starter Donald Thomas went down in Week 1. However, this year the Dolphins are excited to have the mamoth back to see what he can do over the course of a season. The likes of Andy Alleman and Ike Ndukwe remain providing interior depth.
Finally, despite Samson Satele starting his first two years at center, the Dolphins really weren't happy with his play. Specifically, he did not carry the size that Parcells and company like to see up front. So, they went in search of an upgrade this offseason.
Jason Brown of the Ravens was the consensus best center available in free agency, but he was snatched up by the Rams for 5 years and $37.5 million, more than the Dolphins were willing to pay. So, the Dolphins ended up with Jake Grove, a 29-year-old rescued from Oakland. They piad him $29 million over 5 years, and if that doesn't seem like much less, consider that Miami is paying him $14m in guarantees, as opposed to $24m with Brown.
I must say, if the Dolphins were weary of giving that much money to Brown (which confuses me to begin with, because he has been a better player than Carey, $42m, to this point in his career), I would have rather they went with a cheaper option or the draft. Matt Birk, for example, who is more than capable of leading an offensive line, went for only $12 million over 3 years. I understand that he is older, but at some point value comes with age. Also, I don't know much about Grove, so I would like to refrain from passing judgement, but the reviews of him seem to be mixed at best, a 2nd round pick who never materialized into something special. We will have to wait and see...
As far as the draft goes, don't expect the Dolphins to draft up front early. I would've very much liked to see them go with centers Alex Mack or Max Unger in the first round, both of whom could step into an NFL lineup and start, but with Grove's 29 milli in the equation, this doesn't seem so likely.
Joe Berger was added to bring depth to the interior, so I wouldn't expect the Dolphins to draft anyone there later either. The only real draft need on the line is some depth at tackle behind Long and Carey, so look for the Dolphins to spend at least one late round flier there, maybe two.
The bottom line is that the line is set for years to come. I pray that Jake Grove can exceed expectations, because if he does the Miami Dolphins will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come.
The Wide Receiver Situation
Finally a fun one.
Last season, the Dolphins had three wide receivers catch over 50 passes. Ted Ginn Jr. took a step forward from his rookie season with 790 yards, including 14.1 per clip, though his step forward may not have been big enough for many observers...his DVOA as measured by Football Outsiders was below the league average. On the other hand, the other two receivers with over 50 catches were two undrafted players, Greg Camarillo and Devone Bess, both of whom certainly won the hearts of Dolfans. Both are possession receivers, and both impressively did their work in shortened seasons, Camarillo's by injury, Bess' due to a late emergence. Each was slightly above the league average in value measured by DVOA.
Brandon London, a special teams standout and lead cheerleader at Dolphins games, also contributed, quietly serving as the wideout in double tight sets towards the end of the season. Additionally, Ernest Wilford's contract managed to make it throught the end of the season, though he hardly ever played. Joining them on the current roster are former practice squader Anthony Armstrong and the 6'3" longshot Todd Lowber.
Common knowledge points to wideout as a huge need position for the Dolphins right now. Camarillo and Bess, while impressive and beloved, are both considered best suited in peripheral roles. Ginn, despite his high draft pedigree, is likewise considered a #2. Despite his speed, he hasn't demonstrated that he can be an elite-caliber receiver, and most are calling for a big, strong #1 receiver in the draft. In fact, if Bill Parcells were not running this team, it would probably be a foregone conclusion that the Dolphins would draft a receiver in the first round.
However, Bill Parcells is the VP of Football Operations, and common knowledge does not manage the team. So, while wide receiver is certainly the most glaring need on offense, we need to take a deeper look at Ted Ginn to evaluate his value.
Ginn certainly hasn't been an elite receiver in his first few seasons in the league. There is no disputing that. But how many first or second year receivers are elite? The answer is not many. It's counterintuitive because it seems like a simple enough position (run the route, catch the ball), but receiver is one of the hardest positions to adjust to in the NFL. The general rule of thumb in league circles is that it takes until a receiver's third season before he really adjusts to the NFL.
Additionally, while Ginn hasn't been elite, and hasn't even been an every down player in many cases, he does bring speed to the equation. If you break down offensive tape of the Dolphins, you will notice that teams played us very differently last year with Ginn on the field. Teams usually rotated a safety over him, respect that they didn't pay to any of our other receivers. Much like Randy Moss does in New England for Wes Welker, Ginn can help dictate what coverages the defense can't play, opening the door for Camarillo and Bess underneath.
Consider all of this along with the application of the principle that whoever we draft this year will likely take three years himself to develop, and suddenly drafting a wideout at #25 is not such an obvious proposition.
Moreover, the Dolphins will have five (maybe six) receivers on their roster on opening day, and you can all but guarantee that four of those will be Ginn, Camarillo, Bess, and London (especially the first three). The fifth will be a draft pick, and likely a high draft pick, but the great mystery right now is whether or not it will be our first rounder. Parcells, Ireland, and Sparano need to do some seriously thinking about what they think Ted Ginn can be. And they need to make sure that if they are drafting somebody, it is the right somebody. It will be an interesting and telling moment in Dolphins history when they announce their pick on Saturday.
Last season, the Dolphins had three wide receivers catch over 50 passes. Ted Ginn Jr. took a step forward from his rookie season with 790 yards, including 14.1 per clip, though his step forward may not have been big enough for many observers...his DVOA as measured by Football Outsiders was below the league average. On the other hand, the other two receivers with over 50 catches were two undrafted players, Greg Camarillo and Devone Bess, both of whom certainly won the hearts of Dolfans. Both are possession receivers, and both impressively did their work in shortened seasons, Camarillo's by injury, Bess' due to a late emergence. Each was slightly above the league average in value measured by DVOA.
Brandon London, a special teams standout and lead cheerleader at Dolphins games, also contributed, quietly serving as the wideout in double tight sets towards the end of the season. Additionally, Ernest Wilford's contract managed to make it throught the end of the season, though he hardly ever played. Joining them on the current roster are former practice squader Anthony Armstrong and the 6'3" longshot Todd Lowber.
Common knowledge points to wideout as a huge need position for the Dolphins right now. Camarillo and Bess, while impressive and beloved, are both considered best suited in peripheral roles. Ginn, despite his high draft pedigree, is likewise considered a #2. Despite his speed, he hasn't demonstrated that he can be an elite-caliber receiver, and most are calling for a big, strong #1 receiver in the draft. In fact, if Bill Parcells were not running this team, it would probably be a foregone conclusion that the Dolphins would draft a receiver in the first round.
However, Bill Parcells is the VP of Football Operations, and common knowledge does not manage the team. So, while wide receiver is certainly the most glaring need on offense, we need to take a deeper look at Ted Ginn to evaluate his value.
Ginn certainly hasn't been an elite receiver in his first few seasons in the league. There is no disputing that. But how many first or second year receivers are elite? The answer is not many. It's counterintuitive because it seems like a simple enough position (run the route, catch the ball), but receiver is one of the hardest positions to adjust to in the NFL. The general rule of thumb in league circles is that it takes until a receiver's third season before he really adjusts to the NFL.
Additionally, while Ginn hasn't been elite, and hasn't even been an every down player in many cases, he does bring speed to the equation. If you break down offensive tape of the Dolphins, you will notice that teams played us very differently last year with Ginn on the field. Teams usually rotated a safety over him, respect that they didn't pay to any of our other receivers. Much like Randy Moss does in New England for Wes Welker, Ginn can help dictate what coverages the defense can't play, opening the door for Camarillo and Bess underneath.
Consider all of this along with the application of the principle that whoever we draft this year will likely take three years himself to develop, and suddenly drafting a wideout at #25 is not such an obvious proposition.
Moreover, the Dolphins will have five (maybe six) receivers on their roster on opening day, and you can all but guarantee that four of those will be Ginn, Camarillo, Bess, and London (especially the first three). The fifth will be a draft pick, and likely a high draft pick, but the great mystery right now is whether or not it will be our first rounder. Parcells, Ireland, and Sparano need to do some seriously thinking about what they think Ted Ginn can be. And they need to make sure that if they are drafting somebody, it is the right somebody. It will be an interesting and telling moment in Dolphins history when they announce their pick on Saturday.
The Tight End Situation
In 2008, the tight end position had an awakening with Anthony Fasano and David Martin heavily involved in the offense. Each had over 30 receptions for over 450 yards, and they combined for 10 touchdowns, including 7 for Fasano. Both ranked in the top ten in the NFL in DYAR (total value) for tight ends (Note: Football Outsiders only measures tight ends as receivers, not blockers), and both ranked in the top five in DVOA (value per play).
Still, while the tight ends were a great fit in the offense, enabled the Wildcat to be installed, and were very efficient and productive in the passing game, their ability as blockers seemed to diminish throughout the season and, in the case of David Martin, became a liability. Additionally, while nothing should be taken away from their productivity, the Football Outsiders statistics should be taken with a grain of salt because the nature of the Dolphins offense surely inflated these figures.
Both guys will be around this year, and we can expect similar contributions from the two of them that we got last year. So, for the time being we are set. This is where most analysis that I have read has stoppped, and where in my opinion, the real decision making begins.
If the Dolphins do nothing about the tight ends in the draft, it will become a major position of need in the next offseason. They would have Joey Haynos under contract, and nobody else. In the Dolphins' system, which requires two good tight ends, they would have the decision of either resigning their two free agents (expensive), resigning one and spending a high draft pick on a tight end (a different kind of expensive), or going with Joey Haynos (unproven) along with either a free agent or a draft pick.
In my opinion, the Dolphins can get away with resigning one of either Fasano or Martin next year (preferably Fasano because of his age and blocking ability), but resigning both would put too much money invested in the position and be a poor allocation of funds. Therefore, the big question then moves to Joey Haynos. If the Dolphins believe he can be a 30 catch tight end for years to come, then by all means sit back and pass on every tight end in this draft. However, if the Dolphins have their doubts about the 6'8" Maryland product, it might be prudent to bring in somebody to compete on the second day of the draft.
Still, while the tight ends were a great fit in the offense, enabled the Wildcat to be installed, and were very efficient and productive in the passing game, their ability as blockers seemed to diminish throughout the season and, in the case of David Martin, became a liability. Additionally, while nothing should be taken away from their productivity, the Football Outsiders statistics should be taken with a grain of salt because the nature of the Dolphins offense surely inflated these figures.
Both guys will be around this year, and we can expect similar contributions from the two of them that we got last year. So, for the time being we are set. This is where most analysis that I have read has stoppped, and where in my opinion, the real decision making begins.
If the Dolphins do nothing about the tight ends in the draft, it will become a major position of need in the next offseason. They would have Joey Haynos under contract, and nobody else. In the Dolphins' system, which requires two good tight ends, they would have the decision of either resigning their two free agents (expensive), resigning one and spending a high draft pick on a tight end (a different kind of expensive), or going with Joey Haynos (unproven) along with either a free agent or a draft pick.
In my opinion, the Dolphins can get away with resigning one of either Fasano or Martin next year (preferably Fasano because of his age and blocking ability), but resigning both would put too much money invested in the position and be a poor allocation of funds. Therefore, the big question then moves to Joey Haynos. If the Dolphins believe he can be a 30 catch tight end for years to come, then by all means sit back and pass on every tight end in this draft. However, if the Dolphins have their doubts about the 6'8" Maryland product, it might be prudent to bring in somebody to compete on the second day of the draft.
The Running Back Situation
Like the quarterback position, the Dolphins are in great shape at running back. It was the strength of the offense last year, led by Pro Bowler Ronnie Brown, and it promises to be a strength again this year.
Besides Ronnie Brown, who stood out at the helm of the Wildcat, his partner in crime (and horizontal threat in the Wildcat) Ricky Williams also had a great year, at times taking over as the featured back. However, the surprise of the season was Patrick Cobbs. Every time the Dolphins devised a new way to involve him, Cobbs rewarded the offense with nothing but production and big plays. The Dolphins offense was at its best with all three of these players on the field, whether it was in the Wildcat, the full house, or any other of Dan Henning's concoctions.
Moreover, Football Outsiders statistics highlight the efficiency of Miami's running corps. Ronnie Brown ranked 15th in the NFL in DYAR (overall value) for running while ranking 19th in receiving amongst running backs. This consistency and versatility will keep the 27 year old featured in the offense for at least the next few years. Cobbs, meanwhile, was ridiculously impressive in his role. Amongst running backs, he ranked 3rd in the NFL in value per play catching passes out of the backfield, over 50% better than the average player! That kind of value is why the Dolphins reupped and locked the 25 year old down midseason. Additionally, even Lousaka Polite held down the seldom-used fullback position with remarkable efficiency in short yardage. As any Dolfan will tell you, we have yet to see him fail in a short yardage situation.
What these statistics don't tell you though, is that the key to each running back having so much success was using them together. The only position on this offense that really scared anybody this year was the running backs, and the Dolphins rightfully exploited their strength. By using multiple back concepts, throught different formations (Wildcat included) and backfield actions, every defense was forced to focus their attention on stopping the Dolphins running backs. If you wanted to stop Ronnie Brown, Williams and Cobbs were waiting. If you wanted to load up, Pennington was faking. If you wanted to follow flow, our guards were misdirecting. No matter what we were doing, the foundation was always the talent of our multiple running backs. (For an in-depth discussion of the Dolphins offense, especially the running game, see Special Analysis: Offensive Breakdown, written towards the end of last season).
Luckily, the Dolphins will have all their running backs back next year. Brown and Cobbs paint an especially bright picture for now and three years down the road. The only question is the guy who always seems to be the question, Ricky Williams. However, the question this time is, when will he be too old? The usual rule of thumb is that running backs produce and produce and produce, turn 30, and fall apart. 30 is the industry standard for when a running back is over the hill. Williams is 31, but the question becomes, how old is he in "running back years"?
Williams withstood a lot of overuse in his early years, but then didn't really play football for a while there. Does he get those years back? Also, he seems to take extraordinarily good care of his body these days. Could that mean something different in his aging pattern?
The answer with Williams, as it usually is, is that we really don't know. Fortunately, however, he is not our main guy anymore, and we even have depth behind him in the #2 role if need be. Therefore, it's okay not to know. At 31, we should take any production that we get from him as a bonus. He obviously is a guy with huge upside who can make a big difference in any game. However, if the wheels fall off, if he is injured, or if he retires at any point...no problem.
As it stands, the Dolphins have four guys who make up an excellent running corps right now. As we look three years down the road, we can expect an aging Ronnie Brown looking to be replaced, Patrick Cobbs in the prime of his career, and little more. However, not much needs to be done now to rectify that. Miami will carry 4-5 backs this year, and four of them are set. Additionally, Lex Hilliard stands a good chance to make the team if the Dolphins decide to carry 5. Look for the Dolphins to pass on running backs in the 2009 draft, the only real possibility being a value pick on the second day.
Besides Ronnie Brown, who stood out at the helm of the Wildcat, his partner in crime (and horizontal threat in the Wildcat) Ricky Williams also had a great year, at times taking over as the featured back. However, the surprise of the season was Patrick Cobbs. Every time the Dolphins devised a new way to involve him, Cobbs rewarded the offense with nothing but production and big plays. The Dolphins offense was at its best with all three of these players on the field, whether it was in the Wildcat, the full house, or any other of Dan Henning's concoctions.
Moreover, Football Outsiders statistics highlight the efficiency of Miami's running corps. Ronnie Brown ranked 15th in the NFL in DYAR (overall value) for running while ranking 19th in receiving amongst running backs. This consistency and versatility will keep the 27 year old featured in the offense for at least the next few years. Cobbs, meanwhile, was ridiculously impressive in his role. Amongst running backs, he ranked 3rd in the NFL in value per play catching passes out of the backfield, over 50% better than the average player! That kind of value is why the Dolphins reupped and locked the 25 year old down midseason. Additionally, even Lousaka Polite held down the seldom-used fullback position with remarkable efficiency in short yardage. As any Dolfan will tell you, we have yet to see him fail in a short yardage situation.
What these statistics don't tell you though, is that the key to each running back having so much success was using them together. The only position on this offense that really scared anybody this year was the running backs, and the Dolphins rightfully exploited their strength. By using multiple back concepts, throught different formations (Wildcat included) and backfield actions, every defense was forced to focus their attention on stopping the Dolphins running backs. If you wanted to stop Ronnie Brown, Williams and Cobbs were waiting. If you wanted to load up, Pennington was faking. If you wanted to follow flow, our guards were misdirecting. No matter what we were doing, the foundation was always the talent of our multiple running backs. (For an in-depth discussion of the Dolphins offense, especially the running game, see Special Analysis: Offensive Breakdown, written towards the end of last season).
Luckily, the Dolphins will have all their running backs back next year. Brown and Cobbs paint an especially bright picture for now and three years down the road. The only question is the guy who always seems to be the question, Ricky Williams. However, the question this time is, when will he be too old? The usual rule of thumb is that running backs produce and produce and produce, turn 30, and fall apart. 30 is the industry standard for when a running back is over the hill. Williams is 31, but the question becomes, how old is he in "running back years"?
Williams withstood a lot of overuse in his early years, but then didn't really play football for a while there. Does he get those years back? Also, he seems to take extraordinarily good care of his body these days. Could that mean something different in his aging pattern?
The answer with Williams, as it usually is, is that we really don't know. Fortunately, however, he is not our main guy anymore, and we even have depth behind him in the #2 role if need be. Therefore, it's okay not to know. At 31, we should take any production that we get from him as a bonus. He obviously is a guy with huge upside who can make a big difference in any game. However, if the wheels fall off, if he is injured, or if he retires at any point...no problem.
As it stands, the Dolphins have four guys who make up an excellent running corps right now. As we look three years down the road, we can expect an aging Ronnie Brown looking to be replaced, Patrick Cobbs in the prime of his career, and little more. However, not much needs to be done now to rectify that. Miami will carry 4-5 backs this year, and four of them are set. Additionally, Lex Hilliard stands a good chance to make the team if the Dolphins decide to carry 5. Look for the Dolphins to pass on running backs in the 2009 draft, the only real possibility being a value pick on the second day.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Still Champions
Whenever I get into a bad mood, I like to think about the 2008 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins. Here are some AP pictures from Week 17 to help reminisce (is that really how that word is spelled?). My favorite is the Merling TAINT (Touchdown After INT, above) because you can see a ruined Favre laying in the background as big Phillip takes it to the house. Enjoy.
Ted Ginn makes one of his two huge catches, this for a touchdown
The tiny but tough Bess fights for extra yardage
Y Bell can hit a little bit
Goodman's first of his two interceptions
Sorry, Brett
After picking up the big 4th and 1, Chad's demeanor spoke the story of the season
"How did that #4 work out for y'all?? We won the division..."Thursday, April 2, 2009
The Quarterback Situation
In 2008, Chad Pennington turned in the best season ever by a Dolphins quarterback not named Dan Marino. The career Jet turned Favre-related discard was gladly taken in by Bill Parcells' Dolphins, and all he did was lead the team to the division championship while coming second in MVP balloting and winning his second Comeback Player of the Year award in three years. It was a magical season for Chad, probably the best of his career and one that will be remembered by Dolfans forever. The crowning moment was winning the AFC East Championship in his former home against his former mates in Week 17, sending Brett Favre into retirement.
Nevertheless, as we look ahead at the quarterback position, we need to remove ourselves from all those lingering feelings from last year and examine Pennington with a rational mindset. Though this can be very difficult to do, as football fans have a way of being very shortsighted and sensitive in their mindset, the thing that is going to give any football team the greatest chance for success is planning equally for now and for three years from now in our evaluations and transactions.
Chad Pennington has a track record of, despite never having a quarterback rating below 80 in any season where he has played more than four games, alternating between double-digit and single-digit starts every year over the last seven years.
Year Starts Rating
2000 0 127.1
2001 0 79.6
2002 12 104.2
2003 9 82.9
2004 13 91.0
2005 3 70.9
2006 16 82.6
2007 8 86.1
2008 16 97.4
Career 77 90.6
Pennington is 32 years old, not necessarily at the end of his career in terms of quarterbacks, but despite being on top of his game last year (with improved arm strength coming thanks to renewed work with an old trainer), his arm has been through a lot. Even with his diligent training, Pennington will always be amongst the weaker arms in the league, and in the modern NFL where it is rare that one quarterback can make it through an entire season healthy, it would be a minor miracle if somebody with Pennington's injury history could make it through two in a row.
So, where does that leave us? It leaves us hoping for a continuation of last year's magic, but planning more rationally. There is no doubt that the MVP runner-up will be our starting quarterback on day one, and he will be given every chance to succeed. After all, it's not like Pennington's efficiency is a mystery. He gets it done with unparalleled leadership, intelligent decision-making, and the best play fake in NFL history, so there is plenty of reason to believe he will succeed when he is in there. Still, there remains the very strong chance that he won't make it through the season and/or that his effectiveness will drop off to better match his career averages.
Moreover, with the presence of the promising Chad Henne behind him, Pennington has become the hanging Chad, likely riding out the last year of his contract before either free agency or retirement; at best, the Dolphins could resign him to another reasonable short-term deal after this season. In all likelihood, though, Penny has had his best season as a Dolphin. Still, the one-year-plan for the Dolphins quarterbacks is well in place (remember, I always like to evaluate in terms of right now AND three years from now). Should anything happen to Pennington, the Dolphins have given us every reason to believe that Chad Henne will be able to step in and get the job done, especially with another preseason under his belt.
So, we turn our attention to the future. How does our quarterback position today project forward to three years from now? What type of shape are we putting ourselves in?
The obvious beginning to the answer to that question revolves around Chad Henne. If all goes well, the strong-armed 2nd year player out of Michigan will step in whenever Pennington steps down, and will become our quarterback for the next ten years. If that happens, if all our wildest dreams come true and he is, in fact, the second coming of Dan the Man, then we are fine with John Beck as his backup.
However, the reality of the NFL is that we need to plan for anything. Maybe Henne will become a mediocre quarterback. Maybe he will go the route of Ryan Leaf. With him as the only sure bet to be on the roster as a quarterback in 2010, we need to plan behind him.
So, with QB1 and QB2 (Matt Saracen? FNL? Anybody??) in place, the question moves to what cheap player with upside we want filling the #3 role. Keep in mind that this player will likely become our #2 next year, and that means he will likely play at some point or another. So far this offseason, despite speculation that John Beck would be traded, he hasn't gone anywhere.
What does that tell us about the man Cam Cameron had ahead of Brady Quinn on his draft board? Clearly that he presents a better option at his price (cheap) than any free agents that were available this year (expensive and crappy), but not necessarily that he is better than the upside that a second day draft pick would bring. It will be telling to see on draft day whether the Triumvirate will keep the soon-to-be-28-year-old-with-only-four-career-starts put, or trade him for a late round pick and draft somebody to groom.
Though it may not seem like quarterback is a pressing issue (I haven't read one thing about the Dolphins possibly drafting one), quarterback is ALWAYS a pressing issue. It is the one position which is BY FAR the most important position on the field, and you always need to be diligent about planning three years ahead. Parcells' buddy Ron Wolf used to draft a quarterback every year, no matter what, even when he had Favre. While I am not necessarily advocating that, I am saying that only the Dolphins know if they think John Beck can meet the Dilfer Standard*, and if they don't think he can, then NOW is the time to cash in your assets and try to start building. Chad Henne is far from a guaranteed thing, and having a veteran #3 quarterback means nothing to you this year. Groom your guy now or else one day you might wake up with no more Pennington and an ineffective Henne, and at that point your name might as well be Wannstedt.
Allow me to clarify by saying that I am not calling for Beck to be traded. In fact, I would really like to see him given a shot. He had 0% chance to succeed when he was in the lineup behind the putrid 2007 offensive line and had to learn a new playbook in each of his first two years in the league. I would love to see what he could do this preseason with another year of camp under his belt and some stability on offense. However, if Parcells, Ireland, and Sparano have already seen enough to know that he will not be a winning quarterback on this team, it is their responsibility to turn in their cards and try their luck with a new, young hand.
To conclude, despite all of the complexities that I have discussed as we move forward, the Dolphins really are in great shape at the quarterback position, especially in 2009. We have yet to make any moves at quarterback this offseason, and the only way we will is if the management decides that they've seen enough of John Beck. Pat White has impressed and would obviously be an intriguing option to run the Wildcat offense, but in all likelihood, the Dolphins probably wouldn't take a QB in the draft until the 6th round, if at all. Soon we can turn our attention to training camp where it will be exciting to see how the Chads fare. Will Pennington be able to rekindle the magic of 2008? Will Henne step in at some point this year and become the face of the Miami Dolphins? That, ladies and gentlemen, is why they play the game.
*The "Dilfer Standard" is defined as being capable of consistently winning games from the quarterback position in the NFL. While great quarterbacks easily meet the Dilfer standard, it is named for Trent Dilfer, who won Superbowl XXXV with the Baltimore Ravens through exceptional game management and decision making. The "Dilfer Standard" is not to be confused with its antithesis, the "Cutler-fucker," a quarterback who is a complete waste of God-given talent (Kenny Powers? Eastbound and Down? Anyone?? Buhler...)
Nevertheless, as we look ahead at the quarterback position, we need to remove ourselves from all those lingering feelings from last year and examine Pennington with a rational mindset. Though this can be very difficult to do, as football fans have a way of being very shortsighted and sensitive in their mindset, the thing that is going to give any football team the greatest chance for success is planning equally for now and for three years from now in our evaluations and transactions.
Chad Pennington has a track record of, despite never having a quarterback rating below 80 in any season where he has played more than four games, alternating between double-digit and single-digit starts every year over the last seven years.
Year Starts Rating
2000 0 127.1
2001 0 79.6
2002 12 104.2
2003 9 82.9
2004 13 91.0
2005 3 70.9
2006 16 82.6
2007 8 86.1
2008 16 97.4
Career 77 90.6
Pennington is 32 years old, not necessarily at the end of his career in terms of quarterbacks, but despite being on top of his game last year (with improved arm strength coming thanks to renewed work with an old trainer), his arm has been through a lot. Even with his diligent training, Pennington will always be amongst the weaker arms in the league, and in the modern NFL where it is rare that one quarterback can make it through an entire season healthy, it would be a minor miracle if somebody with Pennington's injury history could make it through two in a row.
So, where does that leave us? It leaves us hoping for a continuation of last year's magic, but planning more rationally. There is no doubt that the MVP runner-up will be our starting quarterback on day one, and he will be given every chance to succeed. After all, it's not like Pennington's efficiency is a mystery. He gets it done with unparalleled leadership, intelligent decision-making, and the best play fake in NFL history, so there is plenty of reason to believe he will succeed when he is in there. Still, there remains the very strong chance that he won't make it through the season and/or that his effectiveness will drop off to better match his career averages.
Moreover, with the presence of the promising Chad Henne behind him, Pennington has become the hanging Chad, likely riding out the last year of his contract before either free agency or retirement; at best, the Dolphins could resign him to another reasonable short-term deal after this season. In all likelihood, though, Penny has had his best season as a Dolphin. Still, the one-year-plan for the Dolphins quarterbacks is well in place (remember, I always like to evaluate in terms of right now AND three years from now). Should anything happen to Pennington, the Dolphins have given us every reason to believe that Chad Henne will be able to step in and get the job done, especially with another preseason under his belt.
So, we turn our attention to the future. How does our quarterback position today project forward to three years from now? What type of shape are we putting ourselves in?
The obvious beginning to the answer to that question revolves around Chad Henne. If all goes well, the strong-armed 2nd year player out of Michigan will step in whenever Pennington steps down, and will become our quarterback for the next ten years. If that happens, if all our wildest dreams come true and he is, in fact, the second coming of Dan the Man, then we are fine with John Beck as his backup.
However, the reality of the NFL is that we need to plan for anything. Maybe Henne will become a mediocre quarterback. Maybe he will go the route of Ryan Leaf. With him as the only sure bet to be on the roster as a quarterback in 2010, we need to plan behind him.
So, with QB1 and QB2 (Matt Saracen? FNL? Anybody??) in place, the question moves to what cheap player with upside we want filling the #3 role. Keep in mind that this player will likely become our #2 next year, and that means he will likely play at some point or another. So far this offseason, despite speculation that John Beck would be traded, he hasn't gone anywhere.
What does that tell us about the man Cam Cameron had ahead of Brady Quinn on his draft board? Clearly that he presents a better option at his price (cheap) than any free agents that were available this year (expensive and crappy), but not necessarily that he is better than the upside that a second day draft pick would bring. It will be telling to see on draft day whether the Triumvirate will keep the soon-to-be-28-year-old-with-only-four-career-starts put, or trade him for a late round pick and draft somebody to groom.
Though it may not seem like quarterback is a pressing issue (I haven't read one thing about the Dolphins possibly drafting one), quarterback is ALWAYS a pressing issue. It is the one position which is BY FAR the most important position on the field, and you always need to be diligent about planning three years ahead. Parcells' buddy Ron Wolf used to draft a quarterback every year, no matter what, even when he had Favre. While I am not necessarily advocating that, I am saying that only the Dolphins know if they think John Beck can meet the Dilfer Standard*, and if they don't think he can, then NOW is the time to cash in your assets and try to start building. Chad Henne is far from a guaranteed thing, and having a veteran #3 quarterback means nothing to you this year. Groom your guy now or else one day you might wake up with no more Pennington and an ineffective Henne, and at that point your name might as well be Wannstedt.
Allow me to clarify by saying that I am not calling for Beck to be traded. In fact, I would really like to see him given a shot. He had 0% chance to succeed when he was in the lineup behind the putrid 2007 offensive line and had to learn a new playbook in each of his first two years in the league. I would love to see what he could do this preseason with another year of camp under his belt and some stability on offense. However, if Parcells, Ireland, and Sparano have already seen enough to know that he will not be a winning quarterback on this team, it is their responsibility to turn in their cards and try their luck with a new, young hand.
To conclude, despite all of the complexities that I have discussed as we move forward, the Dolphins really are in great shape at the quarterback position, especially in 2009. We have yet to make any moves at quarterback this offseason, and the only way we will is if the management decides that they've seen enough of John Beck. Pat White has impressed and would obviously be an intriguing option to run the Wildcat offense, but in all likelihood, the Dolphins probably wouldn't take a QB in the draft until the 6th round, if at all. Soon we can turn our attention to training camp where it will be exciting to see how the Chads fare. Will Pennington be able to rekindle the magic of 2008? Will Henne step in at some point this year and become the face of the Miami Dolphins? That, ladies and gentlemen, is why they play the game.
*The "Dilfer Standard" is defined as being capable of consistently winning games from the quarterback position in the NFL. While great quarterbacks easily meet the Dilfer standard, it is named for Trent Dilfer, who won Superbowl XXXV with the Baltimore Ravens through exceptional game management and decision making. The "Dilfer Standard" is not to be confused with its antithesis, the "Cutler-fucker," a quarterback who is a complete waste of God-given talent (Kenny Powers? Eastbound and Down? Anyone?? Buhler...)
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
New and Improved Man-O-Dolphins
Welcome back Dolfans and brilliantfootballcommentaryfans. I hope you've enjoyed your offseason so far. Over the course of my usual depression which follows the end of the NFL season, I was rendered unable to write, but alas it is April Fools day and I am back with a vengeance now that the draft is within reach.
I have some good news for all of you. As you may have noticed, there are some changes being made to the blog. Much to my chagrin, it will no longer be completely boring and unreadable to those of you who are not both football intellectuals and Dolphin fanatics (though you wouldn't know it by this sentence). The new Man-O-Dolphins will include content pertaining to music, comedy, and other things that normal people find interesting. For more on that, see the new sidebar conveniently located to your right.
For those of you who are skeptical about the change (nobody), have no fear. There will still be plenty of the best Dolphins insight you can find on the web, but now it will be supplemented by even more fabulous Manoism. It's amazing how much can change when you add an 'n' to a predominant form of communism!
This month, I'll be adding a post on every weekday, with the first series of posts being on the status of every position on the Dolphins as we approach the draft. That will include my recap of all offseason happenings so far, so be sure to check back every day while you're bored at work. Additionally, look out for the new array of randomness that will define the NEW Man-O-Dolphins.blogspot.com. Your Google Reader is going to love it.
I leave you with the future of our pass rush:
I have some good news for all of you. As you may have noticed, there are some changes being made to the blog. Much to my chagrin, it will no longer be completely boring and unreadable to those of you who are not both football intellectuals and Dolphin fanatics (though you wouldn't know it by this sentence). The new Man-O-Dolphins will include content pertaining to music, comedy, and other things that normal people find interesting. For more on that, see the new sidebar conveniently located to your right.
For those of you who are skeptical about the change (nobody), have no fear. There will still be plenty of the best Dolphins insight you can find on the web, but now it will be supplemented by even more fabulous Manoism. It's amazing how much can change when you add an 'n' to a predominant form of communism!
This month, I'll be adding a post on every weekday, with the first series of posts being on the status of every position on the Dolphins as we approach the draft. That will include my recap of all offseason happenings so far, so be sure to check back every day while you're bored at work. Additionally, look out for the new array of randomness that will define the NEW Man-O-Dolphins.blogspot.com. Your Google Reader is going to love it.
I leave you with the future of our pass rush:
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