Sunday, November 30, 2008

Fins/Pats: Issues on O

As I mentioned in discussions of the defense, he Dolphins got into a shootout with the Patriots partially because of some offensive issues. Though the Patriots did move the ball in the first half, they also turned it over twice, and while the Dolphins offense was able to convert those into touchdowns, they did not move the ball at all besides that. So, instead of having a lead and controlling the clock, the Dolphins offense was forced to try and keep pace with the Patriots offense all day. That is why the Patriots got their wish and this turned into a shootout.

Backtracking a bit, going into the game each team had a fairly simple overall strategy. The Patriots were trying to go small and exploit skill player matchups on the Dolphins. Conversely, the Dolphins wanted to push the Patriots around and slow the game down, like they did with the Wildcat in the first game.

However, despite turning the ball over twice, the Patriots were able to play the game at their tempo. This was bad news for the Dolphins. With two gifts, they should have been able to build an early lead and establish the run. The Patriots would have been taken completely out of their offensive gameplan and probably would have pressed with fewer possessions, leading to even more mistakes. However, the Dolphins failed to move the ball with consistency in the first half, so the Dolphins offense was definitely partially culpable for falling into the shootout, just like the defense.

Moreover, the reason why the Dolphins offense couldn't get anything going was because of mistakes on first down in the first half. First down is hugely important, the ultimate down and distance for the offense (the Patriots took advantage of it many many times on Sunday), but you need production on first down to make second and third down manageable. However, in the first half against the Patriots, the Dolphins kept shooting themselves in the leg (sorry Plax...), and establishing the run becomes very difficult when you can't do it on first down and can't afford to try it on second or third.

So what led to the Dolphins struggles on first down in the first half, which ultimately led to much bigger problems for the Dolphins against the Patsies? Penalties were big. Whether it was a false start or a hold, penalties put the Dolphins offense in a lot of unnecessary holes. Broken plays were also an issue. I believe it was on the first offensive play of the game when the Dolphins had no clue what they were doing. How does that happen? Also, Ricky fell on an open Wildcat play. I don't think the Patriots would have ever stopped it if the Dolphins had been able to establish it. Finally, Samson Satele was overmatched against Vince Wilfork all day, and when you can' block a nose guard, you are in big trouble (see below).

The result of all the issues on first down was no establishment of a running game. Ricky and Ronnie combined for just 16 carries on the day, and the game was played at the exact pace that Bill Belichick wanted. So, while you can certainly blame the defense for not stopping the Pats, you can also put some blame on the offense for allowing the tempo of the game to get out of hand when presented with some early opportunities.
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Satele:

As I have discussed, I think the most pressing issue for the Miami Dolphins offensive line has not been the right guard position. Samson Satele has proven all year that he is just not strong enough to be a great center in the NFL. Against the Patriots, his inability to handle Vince Wilfork apparent on almost every offensive play, and it caused the Dolphins a lot of problems.

If you can't block a nose, it becomes very difficult to move the ball. Running anywhere between the tackles became off limits because not only was Wilfork handling both A gaps, he was penetrating in cutting off the B's. On passing plays, he was pushing Satele back and getting in Pennington's face, and sooner or later any quarterback is going to make mistakes with that kind of constant pressure.

Satele's mismatch got so bad that he started committing backbreaking penalties. With the Dolphins on the Patriot 49 and looking to move going into the half, Satele got called for a false start, flinching out of fear of being manhandled by the beast in front of him again. In the second half, he commit the hold on the pivotal first and ten on the Patriots 27 after Long went out, and we all know from there it was history. (Note: Though I didn't get to see a replay, I heard that this hold was a bush league call. If it was, then shame on the refs even more for another missed pivotal call, but it doesn't take away from the way Satele struggled.)

Looking ahead, the Dolphins signed another center this week. Al Johnson, from what I hear, is a much bigger and stronger player than Satele; I wouldn't be surprised if he gets some time sooner rather than later if Samson continues to struggle. As far as the line next year is looking, expect Satele to either get much bigger and stronger this offseason (with more bulk, he could be an excellent player; he blocks very well in space) or for him to be replaced. Donald Thomas will take over at right guard, so possible replacements include Johnson, Alleman (a natural center who has run blocked well but has been a liability in pass protection), or somebody not on the Dolphins right now. Regardless, the line won't have the continuity the Dolphins had hoped going into next year, with Thomas coming back to the guard spot and Satele and Carey both potentially on their way out.

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