The Wide Receiver Situation

Finally a fun one.

Last season, the Dolphins had three wide receivers catch over 50 passes. Ted Ginn Jr. took a step forward from his rookie season with 790 yards, including 14.1 per clip, though his step forward may not have been big enough for many observers...his DVOA as measured by Football Outsiders was below the league average. On the other hand, the other two receivers with over 50 catches were two undrafted players, Greg Camarillo and Devone Bess, both of whom certainly won the hearts of Dolfans. Both are possession receivers, and both impressively did their work in shortened seasons, Camarillo's by injury, Bess' due to a late emergence. Each was slightly above the league average in value measured by DVOA.

Brandon London, a special teams standout and lead cheerleader at Dolphins games, also contributed, quietly serving as the wideout in double tight sets towards the end of the season. Additionally, Ernest Wilford's contract managed to make it throught the end of the season, though he hardly ever played. Joining them on the current roster are former practice squader Anthony Armstrong and the 6'3" longshot Todd Lowber.

Common knowledge points to wideout as a huge need position for the Dolphins right now. Camarillo and Bess, while impressive and beloved, are both considered best suited in peripheral roles. Ginn, despite his high draft pedigree, is likewise considered a #2. Despite his speed, he hasn't demonstrated that he can be an elite-caliber receiver, and most are calling for a big, strong #1 receiver in the draft. In fact, if Bill Parcells were not running this team, it would probably be a foregone conclusion that the Dolphins would draft a receiver in the first round.

However, Bill Parcells is the VP of Football Operations, and common knowledge does not manage the team. So, while wide receiver is certainly the most glaring need on offense, we need to take a deeper look at Ted Ginn to evaluate his value.

Ginn certainly hasn't been an elite receiver in his first few seasons in the league. There is no disputing that. But how many first or second year receivers are elite? The answer is not many. It's counterintuitive because it seems like a simple enough position (run the route, catch the ball), but receiver is one of the hardest positions to adjust to in the NFL. The general rule of thumb in league circles is that it takes until a receiver's third season before he really adjusts to the NFL.

Additionally, while Ginn hasn't been elite, and hasn't even been an every down player in many cases, he does bring speed to the equation. If you break down offensive tape of the Dolphins, you will notice that teams played us very differently last year with Ginn on the field. Teams usually rotated a safety over him, respect that they didn't pay to any of our other receivers. Much like Randy Moss does in New England for Wes Welker, Ginn can help dictate what coverages the defense can't play, opening the door for Camarillo and Bess underneath.

Consider all of this along with the application of the principle that whoever we draft this year will likely take three years himself to develop, and suddenly drafting a wideout at #25 is not such an obvious proposition.

Moreover, the Dolphins will have five (maybe six) receivers on their roster on opening day, and you can all but guarantee that four of those will be Ginn, Camarillo, Bess, and London (especially the first three). The fifth will be a draft pick, and likely a high draft pick, but the great mystery right now is whether or not it will be our first rounder. Parcells, Ireland, and Sparano need to do some seriously thinking about what they think Ted Ginn can be. And they need to make sure that if they are drafting somebody, it is the right somebody. It will be an interesting and telling moment in Dolphins history when they announce their pick on Saturday.