The Quarterback Situation

In 2008, Chad Pennington turned in the best season ever by a Dolphins quarterback not named Dan Marino. The career Jet turned Favre-related discard was gladly taken in by Bill Parcells' Dolphins, and all he did was lead the team to the division championship while coming second in MVP balloting and winning his second Comeback Player of the Year award in three years. It was a magical season for Chad, probably the best of his career and one that will be remembered by Dolfans forever. The crowning moment was winning the AFC East Championship in his former home against his former mates in Week 17, sending Brett Favre into retirement.

Nevertheless, as we look ahead at the quarterback position, we need to remove ourselves from all those lingering feelings from last year and examine Pennington with a rational mindset. Though this can be very difficult to do, as football fans have a way of being very shortsighted and sensitive in their mindset, the thing that is going to give any football team the greatest chance for success is planning equally for now and for three years from now in our evaluations and transactions.

Chad Pennington has a track record of, despite never having a quarterback rating below 80 in any season where he has played more than four games, alternating between double-digit and single-digit starts every year over the last seven years.

Year Starts Rating
2000 0 127.1
2001 0 79.6
2002 12 104.2
2003 9 82.9
2004 13 91.0
2005 3 70.9
2006 16 82.6
2007 8 86.1
2008 16 97.4
Career 77 90.6

Pennington is 32 years old, not necessarily at the end of his career in terms of quarterbacks, but despite being on top of his game last year (with improved arm strength coming thanks to renewed work with an old trainer), his arm has been through a lot. Even with his diligent training, Pennington will always be amongst the weaker arms in the league, and in the modern NFL where it is rare that one quarterback can make it through an entire season healthy, it would be a minor miracle if somebody with Pennington's injury history could make it through two in a row.

So, where does that leave us? It leaves us hoping for a continuation of last year's magic, but planning more rationally. There is no doubt that the MVP runner-up will be our starting quarterback on day one, and he will be given every chance to succeed. After all, it's not like Pennington's efficiency is a mystery. He gets it done with unparalleled leadership, intelligent decision-making, and the best play fake in NFL history, so there is plenty of reason to believe he will succeed when he is in there. Still, there remains the very strong chance that he won't make it through the season and/or that his effectiveness will drop off to better match his career averages.

Moreover, with the presence of the promising Chad Henne behind him, Pennington has become the hanging Chad, likely riding out the last year of his contract before either free agency or retirement; at best, the Dolphins could resign him to another reasonable short-term deal after this season. In all likelihood, though, Penny has had his best season as a Dolphin. Still, the one-year-plan for the Dolphins quarterbacks is well in place (remember, I always like to evaluate in terms of right now AND three years from now). Should anything happen to Pennington, the Dolphins have given us every reason to believe that Chad Henne will be able to step in and get the job done, especially with another preseason under his belt.

So, we turn our attention to the future. How does our quarterback position today project forward to three years from now? What type of shape are we putting ourselves in?

The obvious beginning to the answer to that question revolves around Chad Henne. If all goes well, the strong-armed 2nd year player out of Michigan will step in whenever Pennington steps down, and will become our quarterback for the next ten years. If that happens, if all our wildest dreams come true and he is, in fact, the second coming of Dan the Man, then we are fine with John Beck as his backup.

However, the reality of the NFL is that we need to plan for anything. Maybe Henne will become a mediocre quarterback. Maybe he will go the route of Ryan Leaf. With him as the only sure bet to be on the roster as a quarterback in 2010, we need to plan behind him.

So, with QB1 and QB2 (Matt Saracen? FNL? Anybody??) in place, the question moves to what cheap player with upside we want filling the #3 role. Keep in mind that this player will likely become our #2 next year, and that means he will likely play at some point or another. So far this offseason, despite speculation that John Beck would be traded, he hasn't gone anywhere.

What does that tell us about the man Cam Cameron had ahead of Brady Quinn on his draft board? Clearly that he presents a better option at his price (cheap) than any free agents that were available this year (expensive and crappy), but not necessarily that he is better than the upside that a second day draft pick would bring. It will be telling to see on draft day whether the Triumvirate will keep the soon-to-be-28-year-old-with-only-four-career-starts put, or trade him for a late round pick and draft somebody to groom.

Though it may not seem like quarterback is a pressing issue (I haven't read one thing about the Dolphins possibly drafting one), quarterback is ALWAYS a pressing issue. It is the one position which is BY FAR the most important position on the field, and you always need to be diligent about planning three years ahead. Parcells' buddy Ron Wolf used to draft a quarterback every year, no matter what, even when he had Favre. While I am not necessarily advocating that, I am saying that only the Dolphins know if they think John Beck can meet the Dilfer Standard*, and if they don't think he can, then NOW is the time to cash in your assets and try to start building. Chad Henne is far from a guaranteed thing, and having a veteran #3 quarterback means nothing to you this year. Groom your guy now or else one day you might wake up with no more Pennington and an ineffective Henne, and at that point your name might as well be Wannstedt.

Allow me to clarify by saying that I am not calling for Beck to be traded. In fact, I would really like to see him given a shot. He had 0% chance to succeed when he was in the lineup behind the putrid 2007 offensive line and had to learn a new playbook in each of his first two years in the league. I would love to see what he could do this preseason with another year of camp under his belt and some stability on offense. However, if Parcells, Ireland, and Sparano have already seen enough to know that he will not be a winning quarterback on this team, it is their responsibility to turn in their cards and try their luck with a new, young hand.

To conclude, despite all of the complexities that I have discussed as we move forward, the Dolphins really are in great shape at the quarterback position, especially in 2009. We have yet to make any moves at quarterback this offseason, and the only way we will is if the management decides that they've seen enough of John Beck. Pat White has impressed and would obviously be an intriguing option to run the Wildcat offense, but in all likelihood, the Dolphins probably wouldn't take a QB in the draft until the 6th round, if at all. Soon we can turn our attention to training camp where it will be exciting to see how the Chads fare. Will Pennington be able to rekindle the magic of 2008? Will Henne step in at some point this year and become the face of the Miami Dolphins? That, ladies and gentlemen, is why they play the game.



*The "Dilfer Standard" is defined as being capable of consistently winning games from the quarterback position in the NFL. While great quarterbacks easily meet the Dilfer standard, it is named for Trent Dilfer, who won Superbowl XXXV with the Baltimore Ravens through exceptional game management and decision making. The "Dilfer Standard" is not to be confused with its antithesis, the "Cutler-fucker," a quarterback who is a complete waste of God-given talent (Kenny Powers? Eastbound and Down? Anyone?? Buhler...)