The Running Back Situation

Like the quarterback position, the Dolphins are in great shape at running back. It was the strength of the offense last year, led by Pro Bowler Ronnie Brown, and it promises to be a strength again this year.

Besides Ronnie Brown, who stood out at the helm of the Wildcat, his partner in crime (and horizontal threat in the Wildcat) Ricky Williams also had a great year, at times taking over as the featured back. However, the surprise of the season was Patrick Cobbs. Every time the Dolphins devised a new way to involve him, Cobbs rewarded the offense with nothing but production and big plays. The Dolphins offense was at its best with all three of these players on the field, whether it was in the Wildcat, the full house, or any other of Dan Henning's concoctions.

Moreover, Football Outsiders statistics highlight the efficiency of Miami's running corps. Ronnie Brown ranked 15th in the NFL in DYAR (overall value) for running while ranking 19th in receiving amongst running backs. This consistency and versatility will keep the 27 year old featured in the offense for at least the next few years. Cobbs, meanwhile, was ridiculously impressive in his role. Amongst running backs, he ranked 3rd in the NFL in value per play catching passes out of the backfield, over 50% better than the average player! That kind of value is why the Dolphins reupped and locked the 25 year old down midseason. Additionally, even Lousaka Polite held down the seldom-used fullback position with remarkable efficiency in short yardage. As any Dolfan will tell you, we have yet to see him fail in a short yardage situation.

What these statistics don't tell you though, is that the key to each running back having so much success was using them together. The only position on this offense that really scared anybody this year was the running backs, and the Dolphins rightfully exploited their strength. By using multiple back concepts, throught different formations (Wildcat included) and backfield actions, every defense was forced to focus their attention on stopping the Dolphins running backs. If you wanted to stop Ronnie Brown, Williams and Cobbs were waiting. If you wanted to load up, Pennington was faking. If you wanted to follow flow, our guards were misdirecting. No matter what we were doing, the foundation was always the talent of our multiple running backs. (For an in-depth discussion of the Dolphins offense, especially the running game, see Special Analysis: Offensive Breakdown, written towards the end of last season).

Luckily, the Dolphins will have all their running backs back next year. Brown and Cobbs paint an especially bright picture for now and three years down the road. The only question is the guy who always seems to be the question, Ricky Williams. However, the question this time is, when will he be too old? The usual rule of thumb is that running backs produce and produce and produce, turn 30, and fall apart. 30 is the industry standard for when a running back is over the hill. Williams is 31, but the question becomes, how old is he in "running back years"?

Williams withstood a lot of overuse in his early years, but then didn't really play football for a while there. Does he get those years back? Also, he seems to take extraordinarily good care of his body these days. Could that mean something different in his aging pattern?

The answer with Williams, as it usually is, is that we really don't know. Fortunately, however, he is not our main guy anymore, and we even have depth behind him in the #2 role if need be. Therefore, it's okay not to know. At 31, we should take any production that we get from him as a bonus. He obviously is a guy with huge upside who can make a big difference in any game. However, if the wheels fall off, if he is injured, or if he retires at any point...no problem.

As it stands, the Dolphins have four guys who make up an excellent running corps right now. As we look three years down the road, we can expect an aging Ronnie Brown looking to be replaced, Patrick Cobbs in the prime of his career, and little more. However, not much needs to be done now to rectify that. Miami will carry 4-5 backs this year, and four of them are set. Additionally, Lex Hilliard stands a good chance to make the team if the Dolphins decide to carry 5. Look for the Dolphins to pass on running backs in the 2009 draft, the only real possibility being a value pick on the second day.