Sunday, December 21, 2008

Fins/Chiefs: Breakdown

After keeping up my live comments during the game, I was sure that it had been way too emotional a contest for me to have been doing that for the first time. The highs and lows were superlative on Sunday, and my writing clearly reflected it. After the game, I made the decision to take a day to cool off before I wrote anything else.

After taking a day, and two, and three, I can safely say that my emotions aren't going anywhere, and rightfully so. On Sunday, the Miami Dolphins will have a chance to win the 2008 AFC East Championship. Their destiny is in their own hands, and they have earned it. With one more victory, the division will be theirs.

As everybody has mentioned, this game is loaded with story lines. Pennington will return to the Meadowlands to face Favre and the Jets, and the millions of subplots that accompany that story have been well documented. Expect a great effort from this slumping Jets team, as they are not only fighting for a playoff spot, but this is a rivalry game, their coach's job is on the line, and Favre always seems to rise the highest when times seem hardest. Regardless, the Dolphins can only control their play, and if they can put together one more complete effort, nothing else will matter.

As for all the other subplots, and more on the Chad and Brett show, I'll leave that to the mainstream media, who seem to have that covered and then some. I'll do what I do best - the breakdown:

Quarterback:

Chad Pennington was phenomenal against the Chiefs. He put together one of his best games of his terrific season and was the biggest reason why the Dolphins won. With all the concerns about his arm strength and performance in the cold weather, he put together another huge fourth quarter drive (he was 7-7) to win the game in an MVP-caliber performance that raised his quarterback rating to second in the NFL. It is an absolute crime that he is not in the Pro Bowl. This is a career defining season for him that will never be forgotten.

Running Backs:

Another solid but not spectacular performance from both Ricky and Ronnie. While they both continue to be healthy down the stretch, they haven't been the weapons we had hoped for this year, but who can really complain? They each need more touches, and hopefully one or the other will get a chance to really get going against the Jets.

I was happy to see some signs of the coaches trying to get the hot back going on Sunday, but their plan was a bit flawed. Ricky Williams caught fire in the second half, especially in the passing game, and the coaches made an effort to get the ball to him which saw results. However, he is considerably more prone to fumbling than Ronnie Brown, and Ronnie should have been the one getting the ball as the Dolphins tried to run out the clock. This mistake could have been costly, especially against an Edwards-coached team.

On that note, the Dolphins for the first time that I can remember this season had some ball control issues. There were three situations during the game where the Dolphins could have easily lost fumbles (and the turnover record), but the refs bailed them out on two of them. This is not the time of season for these issue to come about, and nothing short of perfect Miami football will be required to beat the Jets.

Tight Ends:

How about those tight ends? Three touchdowns on the day, including a spectacular game-winning catch by Anthony Fasano. As far as their role in the passing game goes, enough said.

...However, as far as their role in the running game goes, there are issues. David Martin continues to struggle to block anybody at the point of attack, and the coaches love to keep running behind him. This could really hurt us against the Jets and is something to keep an eye on. As far as his future goes, he might be better served in a Dallas Clark, not-a-legit-tight-end-because-only-a-threat-as-a-receiver role.

Wide Receivers:

The wideouts on this team have effectively been narrowed to two guys at this point (we miss you, Greg), but fortunately they both played well against Kansas City. Still, this makes it all the more important for the Dolphins not to play from behind late in a game, because this offense doesn't have the personnel to match up against a lot of defensive backs on the field.

Regardless, I was pleased to see Ginn recover from a string of poor showings recently. Maybe it was because he was taken off the return team, but he opened the game with a quick score on an end around and helped move the ball all day long. I must admit I did cheer and then laugh as he caught a pass over the middle and immediately proceeded to the sideline. Baby steps.

As for Devone Bess, the guy can flat out play. Four of his receptions went for first downs, and none was bigger than his momentum turning conversion after the Dolphins had tried the Wildcat unsuccessfully for the first time. The Dolphins were at risk of a deflating three and out, but the conversion set up the long Patrick Cobbs run, and the rest was history. The combination of he, Camarillo, Ginn, and mystery receiver X next year will make the Dolphins awfully hard to defend.

Offensive Line:

My favorite group of boys to critique surprised me on Sunday, as Satele played the entire game at center. I guess the coaches were happy with his effort over the course of the week, and rightfully so. He played very well in leading a unit that didn't allow a sack, albeit against a putrid defensive line. Satele has struggled against bigger nose tackles, but hopefully his newly inspired play will continue against gimpy and exhausted Kris Jenkins. That matchup could very well be the key to winning the division.

I was happy to see the Dolphins again make use of some false pulling. On the first play of the game, Andy Alleman's deception freed up Ted Ginn for his touchdown run, and for the rest of the day the Chiefs were on their heels. That type of simple game planning with this offense can pay huge dividends.

Additionally, I haven't said it enough this year, but Jake Long is terrific. He is going to make a lot of Miami Dolphins quarterbacks and running backs look good for a long time, and we should all be thankful for that. A powerful run blocker and increasingly proficient pass protector, he'll have a spot in the Pro Bowl for years and years to come.

Wildcat:

While the Dolphins did employ some Wildcat successfully against the Chiefs, I continue to be more enamored by the Wildcat concepts they successfully plug into the rest of their offense. The full house formation must be good for eight or more yards every time they use it, and the "Pennington Wildcat" led to yet another touchdown to Anthony Fasano. Defensive coordinators must wet themselves every time they see these impossible-to-defend formations, and I hope that Dan Henning only uses them more and more.

As for the traditional Wildcat, I was stunned when the Dolphins went into it early in the second half after putting up 24 points without it in the first. Still, a Bess third down conversion bailed them out, and then their strategy paid off. Chad left the game, giving the Dolphins a true man advantage, and Cobbs went for a huge gain on the reverse. The key to the play was genius design: the Dolphins didn't overload and put all tight ends to the right, so without the quarterback in the game the Chiefs didn't know how to respond. Cobbs ran right up the left side behind our best blockers Alleman and Long.

Offensive Coaching:

I was pleased with everything...except one thing. The Dolphins were absolutely right to go for the first down on fourth and one from the five, but they way they went about it was extraordinarily stupid. Polite continues to be unstoppable in short yardage, among other options, but they decided to throw the fade to our rookie tight end in the elements. I hate the fade to being with, but to a rookie, in a big spot, with the elements...bad call.

Still, the Dolphins were generally clever on offense all day, and they came out and executed wonderfully. So, great job by the staff. Let's get it together for one more beauty.

Run Defense:

Our weak hitting on defense, which certainly had to do with the absence of defensive leader Channing Crowder, set the tone for the horrible defensive performance in the first half against Kansas City. It was absolutely terrible, as ugly a half of defensive football as you can get, and it all starting with the hitting.

Besides missing Crowder as a spiritual leader and heavy hitter, we missed him tackling in general. Led by Akin Ayodele, this was as poor a tackling day as the Dolphins have had in months. In fact, Ayodele and Torbor only combined for four tackles the entire day. Crowder alone has only failed to surpass that figure once this season!

It is a sure bet that the Crowder-less experiment failed, and the Dolphins desperately need him back against Thomas Jones and the Jets. Looking ahead, he appears to be a surefire priority in resigning this offseason. Ironically, he would excel as a second inside linebacker, the type that could play alongside a cerebral type who would stay on the field in passing situations...essentially, Zach Thomas. Instead, it appears at least for the time being he will fill that role, one that at this juncture is just a little bit too big for him to truly stand out in.

Moving on, it was a tale of two entirely different games for the outside linebackers. Discounting the last play of the Bills the game, it has now been two awful, invisible weeks in a row for supposed defensive MVP Joey Porter. I'll get to his pass rush issues later, but against the run he was just flat out horrible against the Chiefs. Every successful run that Kansas City had went to his side, including many where they intelligently got Tony Gonzalez out on him. He is a liability, and again the Dolphins are going to have to devise a way to protect him if they plan on having any success in stopping Thomas Jones.

On the other hand, Matt Roth was nothing short of amazing. In the first half and throughout, this beast dominated. There was not a successful run to his side all day, and even when he doesn't make the tackle, he squeezes and strings out plays beautifully. I'll take this opportunity to describe his best play of the day, though it was truly equal parts run defense, pass defense, and pass rush...I'll explain:

After the Dolphins had finally gone ahead in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs took over and quickly faced a fourth and one. They reached in and pulled out the best play in their playbook for the situation. Thigpen booted out towards the side of the field where Tony Gonzalez was trying to release. With Thigpen's wheels, it was designed to be a simple three man game - either cover the greatest receiving tight end in NFL history or attack the speedy quarterback - certainly no player could do both. Well, Matt Roth did. He punished Gonzalez at the line, refusing to allow him to release, and when Thigpen turned around to face the line of scrimmage, Roth shed Gonzalez so easily that Thigpen fell down out of fear, allowing big Matt to complete the sack. On a play where it is an accomplishment for most NFLers to just stay at home, it was the perfect execution of responsibility football.

Additionally, while we're on the topic of run defense, Ferguson also played well, especially late in the game. Along with Porter and Ayodele in the negative column was Renaldo Hill, who was by far the softest player on the field all day. He actually seemed afraid of contact, very uncharacteristic of him.

Pass Defense:

With the exception of Andre Goodman, pass defense was terrible all day, especially in the first half. Pretty much everybody was bad, as there is no excuse for getting torched by Thigpen. The pass rush didn't help, but again...Thigpen. The Dolphins seem to have monumental issues with their nickel package when teams spread them out. Though this certainly isn't the Jets strength, I wouldn't be surprised if they tried some of this, if only to run out of it. Also, they could be successful if they need to pass in a comeback bid. Let's hope not.

When Gonzalez was lined up against the man I dubbed our best linebacker in pass coverage, Akin Ayodele, it was a joke. In another aspect of Ayodele's disappointing performance (which could leave him jobless and should leave him out of the starting lineup next year), the Dolphins needed to compensate. The answer ended up being a combination of bullying Gonzalez at the line by Roth and Bell stepping up to really improve his coverage in the second half. As bad as the handling of Gonzalez was early, they got it together when it counted.

One guy who seemed to get it together - a sack and a pick looks nice - but is our biggest weakness in pass defense right now is Nate Jones. He gave up the first touchdown of the day with poor coverage; he allowed the receiver to break his cushion and bailed far too late. Whether or not there was a push off was insignificant...he didn't play it correctly. Similarly, when Kansas City had a free play before halftime (thanks Joey Porter), he again made a poor play and allowed the long completion which ultimately led to the Chiefs scoring their 28th point of the half. I am very worried about his standing as we head into the game against the Jets.

Still, Andre Goodman's fine play cannot be ignored. He played the entire game doing what he does best, in press man to man coverage. One on one with no help for most of the day, all he did was deflect five passes, many of them on deep balls, and return an interception 55 yards. I loved seeing, no matter the shell that the Chiefs were in, that he was up bumping the receivers, and I see no reason for him to be doing anything else (save the occasional trickery changing things up) on Sunday against the Jets and next year when - I can't believe I'm advocating this - the Dolphins resign him.

Pass Rush:

The Dolphins had a poor day rushing the passer, and it contributed to the poor pass defense all day. As I said before, they struggled against the spread, and the coaches need to take a good hard look at the four down lineman philosophy in nickel situations in the offseason. (Ed note: by good hard look, I mean eliminate it).

Joey Porter and Charlie Anderson were invisible, and as I mentioned before, that is two straight poor efforts from Porter. He needs to be stepping up at this time of year, not fading, and his ability not only to hold his own against the run on his side of the field, but to force Brett Favre into mistakes, will be a huge key in this week's game for the Dolphins.

Moreover, the Dolphins need more creativity in rushing the passer in general, especially out of their nickel. The two quarterbacks who have killed the Dolphins out of the spread formation, Cassel and Thigpen, both were able to read to blitzes and deliver the ball quickly to receivers. There needs to be a mix of press with safeties over the top, zone blitzes, man blitzes, and anything else the Dolphins can throw at Favre in passing situations. The strategy of giving one look for a whole drive is stupid and ineffective. Quite simply, by picking one of those rushers up out of their stance, the Dolphins can create a lot more issues and looks defensively than they can out of their stagnant, four down base.

I will add two pieces of advice for the pass rushing woes. First of all, don't be afraid to put Ferguson in the game in the nickel. He has made it through the whole season and is fresh. This is it. Obviously, we don't want him wearing himself out on every down, but big 95 has shown the ability to rush the passer when he is in the game, so we shouldn't let the offense dictate and sub him out for us. His presence would allow us to keep another linebacker in, and our rush packages can get much more creative and effective. Second, blitz Nate Jones like crazy. Maybe he will step up on Sunday, but he appears to be a liability, especially when we play man coverage (which we do, and need to do, a lot). However, he is a terrific blitzer. Send him in! Find different ways to do it. Get hits on Favre early and often and make him feel every year that he has played in this league until he can't wait to retire (again). We need to manufacture a pass rush, and this is an easy (and obvious) step in doing so. The zone blitz coming back from underneath him could even lead to a game changing turnover.

Special Teams:

The Special Teams continue to perform well since the addition of Erik Walden. To be fair, however, it was Walden who had an especially bad hold on a kick return, but it can be forgiven thanks to his wedge-busting prowess. The guy is an animal.

Speaking of kick returns, the most notable change the Dolphins made to their special teams on Sunday was replacing Ted Ginn with Patrick Cobbs on kick returns. Though I am a fan of Ginn and his game breaking ability back there, the timing just hasn't been working out of late with the unit blocking in front of him. So, a change to Cobbs made sense, especially since any change which gets Cobbs the ball in his hands more often seems to be a good change (like changing your name to "Latrine" from "Shithouse"). Apologies for the "Men in Tights" reference aside, Cobbs was excellent returning kicks on Sunday, from the opening kick and throughout.

The other great play on special teams came from new addition William Kershaw, who forced a fumble with a vicious hit in kick coverage when the Dolphins most needed it. Unfortunately, Miami failed to convert a touchdown on their ensuing position thanks to a certain Haynos play call (apologies again), but all worked out well by the end of the day.

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