Chambers Trade

Note: although this post concentrates mostly on Chambers' value, I really believe the most important aspect of the trade was the ramifications of getting a very valuable 2nd round pick for him, especially for a (dare I say) rebuilding team like the Dolphins.

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So, we traded Chambers and it seems ambivalence ensues, at least for you...here's something that might make you feel a little better.

According to footballoutsiders.com, what I consider to be the best statistical reference site for the NFL, Chambers is a below average starting wide receiver. The way FootballOutsiders works is they measure a player's value over a replacement player, much like the concepts that Moneyball GMs in baseball use.

The two statistics that you will see are DPAR (defense adjusted points above replacement) and DVOA (defense adjusted value over average). Both statistics control for the quality of defense that you play against, and DPAR measures the number of points scored due to plays where this WR caught the ball compared to a replacement-level (backup) WR, while DVOA measures what percentage better a wide receiver is than the average wide receiver in the same situations. DPAR means a wide receiver with more total value. DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play.

It sounds complicated, but you can trust that they are very good measures of how good a receiver is. If you would like to do some research for yourself, they are very thoroughly described here:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dpar
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php#dvoa

This season, where Chambers is having a pretty solid year (415 yards in 6 games puts him on pace for 1,000), he ranks 56th in the NFL in DPAR and 58th in DVOA among 76 players ranked. You thought he was better than that, didn't you? He is 11.8% worse than the average wide receiver and has only caught 47% of passes thrown his way. Marty Booker, the Dolphins quiet #2 receiver, ranks higher than him in terms of value. Convinced yet?

Well I've got more for you anyway. In 2006, Chambers ranked dead last in the NFL among the 82 players who had at least 50 passes thrown their way during the season. LAST. What's even more embarrassing...it wasn't even close. The #1 receiver, Reggie Wayne, had a DPAR of 46. Marty Booker was pretty high ranking #26 at 16.9. Wes Welker, in his Miami Dolphin glory days, ranked #46 at 9.6. The #81 ranked (2nd to last) receiver in the league, A. Whitted from Oakland, had a DPAR of -8.9. Chambers was at an astounding -19.8 (over 10 points worse than the 2nd worst player!), and he ranked over 33% worse than a mere AVERAGE receiver in the NFL in terms of DVOA. All of this actually prompted FootballOutsiders to write an article
about how he is not a #1 receiver in the NFL (unfortunately, I can't find it in the archives).

No fear, Chambers had a bad year last year with instability at quarterback. Surely in 2005, when he broke 1,000 yards and scored 11 touchdowns, he would get some DPAR/DVOA respect. Guess again my friend. In 2005, Chambers ranked #62 in the league in DPAR, again behind both Welker and Booker (in that order in 2005), and #73 in DVOA, 11.3% worse than an average wide receiver. That's right, if you put an average wide receiver in Chambers place in 2005 (say, Michael Jenkins from Atlanta), he would have had a better year and been more valuable than Chambers. Even in Chambers' career year, he only caught 49% of passes thrown in his direction.

Obviously, no statistic is perfect. However, if you read the description of these stats or even simply take a look at who the top rated receivers in terms of DPAR are (for the sake of concurrent validity), you will see that these are very good statistics. If your natural inclination is to make the argument that quarterbacks and offensive systems have a lot to do with how successful a receiver is, even within the scope of these statistics, then you are right, that's a good argument to make. However, the fact of the matter is that (a) Chambers is so far down on these lists that quarterbacks cannot account for that much variance and (b) Booker and Welker consistently had better DPARs even with the same quarterbacks and offenses.

Combine all of this info with the fact that a second round pick is HUGE in terms of value, and you have a great trade by Mueller and Co. They took advantage of a regime in San Diego with their jobs on the line, therefore willing to mortgage their future. I might've felt ambivalent about letting Chambers go for a 3rd round pick, but a 2nd rounder is a no-brainer. I'll miss Chambers some, and I wish him the best of luck in the future, but this was the right move for the Miami Dolphins.



note: Here are links to the Wide Receiver ranking on footballoutsiders.com
for 2007, 2006, and 2005, respectively:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr.php
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2006.php
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2005.php